Sources · Tested · Episode 1
History Repeats Every 80 Years. We Tested It.
Every figure shown on screen in this episode, with the document, page and date it comes from, and a label for how strong the evidence is.
We checked Strauss and Howe's crisis cycle against their own crisis dates, two trust surveys, US recessions and banking crises, and the book's dated forecasts. The strict 80-year schedule doesn't hold, and these checks give no reliable date for the next crisis.
- Published
- 22 September 2026
- Length
- 11:16
- Figures checked
- 26 September 2026
- Documents
- 21
Verdict
“Strict timing: a new crisis every 80 years, give or take 10”
“Predictions: the book's dated forecasts, with one scorable timing claim”
On screen in this episode
16The document shows it, and you can check it yourself.
24Someone says so, but nothing independent backs it up.
14Something that matters is missing from every source we checked.
23Our own arithmetic from the sourced numbers. The method is below.- missing1A value is absent from the dataset. It is shown as missing, never as zero.
What isn’t shown
- 3:30NEXT CRISIS: ? · UNEVEN SPACING
- 4:08DECLINE ≠ REPEATING CYCLE
- 4:11OUR TEST · FALL AT EVERY CHANGE? · REBUILD · The staircase was ours.
- 4:41DECLINE OBSERVED · INCONCLUSIVE
- 5:41OUR SPREADSHEET · DESCRIPTIVE ROW 1–5 · NOT SEPARATE CRISES
- 6:19BROADER CYCLE: INCONCLUSIVE
- 6:43LATER EVENT CHOICE · NOT A SPECIFIC CRASH FORECAST
- 6:592020 CLIMAX · NOT IDENTIFIED
- 7:15WHAT COUNTS AS A GATE? · UNDEFINED ≠ A FAIR MISS
- 7:31Predictive skill is not established by one match
- 9:29BIRTHDAY → JOB? · LABELS ≠ PERSONALITY TEST
- 10:1002 TRUST CYCLE · INCONCLUSIVE
- 10:1503 ECONOMIC CYCLE · INCONCLUSIVE
- 10:40NEXT CRISIS: ? · 80.0000… · No reliable date established by these checks
On screen, in order
- 0:00
EVERY 80 YEARS? · 1945 · 1865 · 1783 · SELECTED WAR END DATES
The years in which World War II, the Civil War and the American Revolution ended for the United States.
- [1] VA fact sheet, America's Wars, American Revolution (1775-1783); Civil War (1861-1865); World War II (1941–1945)
- 0:03
80 YEARS · 82 YEARS
- [1] VA fact sheet, America's Wars
- 0:10
2026 · 81 YEARS LATER
- [1] VA fact sheet, America's Wars
- 0:16
ROUTE 80 · NEXT: ROUGHLY NOW
The claim the episode tests, in its popular 80-year form. The 1997 book projected its current Crisis for about 2005 to 2026; Howe's 2023 book puts a great turning point before the mid-2030s.
- 0:37
TRUST IN GOVERNMENT · 1958 · 2025 · Pew Research Center / 1958–2025 (small chart on a laptop screen)
- [4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government, data table and smoothed trend line
- 0:46
STRAUSS + HOWE · HISTORY + ECONOMICS
Neil Howe's speaker biography lists graduate degrees in economics (M.A., 1978) and history (M.Phil., 1979) from Yale.
- [5] Hedgeye Macrocosm 2015 invitation, PDF page 3, speaker biography
- 0:49
CAPITOL STEPS
- 0:57
THE FOURTH TURNING · 1997 · AN AMERICAN PROPHECY
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997), catalogue record: “The fourth turning : an American prophecy”, New York: Broadway Books, 1997
- 1:06
80–100 · YEARS / ONE LAP
The authors' model.
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, excerpt, “It's All Happened Before”: “roughly eighty to one hundred years”
- 1:12
SAECULUM · HIGH / SPRING · AWAKENING / SUMMER · UNRAVELING / AUTUMN · CRISIS / WINTER · THE AUTHORS’ MODEL / APPROXIMATELY TWO DECADES PER SEASON
- 1:20
THE HIGH · SPRING · STRONG INSTITUTIONS · PEOPLE PULL TOGETHER
- 1:26
THE HIGH · 1946–1964
The authors' model. The protest placards that follow are illustrations.
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, table of contents: “The First Turning-American High, 1946-1964”
- 1:34
AWAKENING · 1964–1984
The authors' model.
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, table of contents: “The Second Turning-Consciousness Revolution, 1964-1984”
- 1:45
UNRAVELING · 1984 → ~2005 · 2005 WAS PROJECTED
The end year was the authors' projection in 1997.
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, table of contents: “The Third Turning-Culture Wars, 1984-2005?”; excerpt: “due to expire around the middle of the Oh-Oh decade”
- 1:55
THE AUTHORS’ AMERICAN WINTERS · 1773 REVOLUTION · 1860 CIVIL WAR · 1929 DEPRESSION + WWII
Start years of the authors' Crisis eras: 1773–1794, 1860–1865 and 1929–1946. The excerpt names the sparks: the Boston Tea Party, John Brown's raid and execution, and Black Tuesday. These are not the war-end years in the opening.
- 2:02
FORECAST IN 1997 · ~2005 · NEXT CRISIS START
- 2:13
PROPHET · NOMAD · HERO · ARTIST
- 2:48
1459 · 1569 · 1675 · 1773 · 1860 · 1929
Start years of the authors' Crisis eras: Wars of the Roses, Armada Crisis, Glorious Revolution, American Revolution, Civil War, and Great Depression and World War II.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 2:52
110 · 106 · 98 · 87 · 69 · YEARS BETWEEN CRISIS STARTS · 69–110 YEARS
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 3:05
MEAN GAP · 91 · YEARS · WITH PROJECTED 2005
Without the projected 2005 the five historical gaps average 94 years.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 3:12
OUR RULE: 70–90 · 91
Our own pass mark of 80 years, give or take 10. The mean of 91 is one year outside it.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 3:19
BOOK: 80–100
The authors' model.
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, excerpt: “roughly eighty to one hundred years”
- 3:22
80–100 YEARS · SERVICE WINDOW (calendar of 80 to 100, 91 circled) · 91 FITS · Our stricter rule ≠ the book’s whole claim
- [7] Publisher's page and excerpt, The Fourth Turning, excerpt: “roughly eighty to one hundred years”
- 3:30
NEXT CRISIS: ? · UNEVEN SPACING
Gaps of 69 to 110 years do not give a reliable date for the next crisis.
- Checked[2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 3:43
GOVERNMENT · OTHER PEOPLE · Pew 1958–2025 / NORC GSS 1972–2024 · different questions
- 3:46
TRUST IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT · TO DO WHAT IS RIGHT, MOST / ALL OF THE TIME · 1958 · 73% · ONE HIGH-PERIOD READING · Pew Research Center / December 1958
One poll reading, from the National Election Study as listed by Pew. It is Pew's only reading before 1964, the boundary year between the authors' High and Awakening. Pew's wording is “just about always” or “most of the time”.
- [4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government, data table: 12/01/1958, NES, 73
- 3:55
AWAKENING · UNRAVELING · CRISIS · 1958–2025 (chart of Pew's smoothed trend with the authors' turnings shaded)
- 3:59
41% · 35% · 23% · MEAN OF POLL READINGS · PERIOD MEANS: OUR CALCULATION
- [4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government, data table, 163 readings
- 4:03
SEPT 2025 · 17%
2% said “just about always” and 15% “most of the time”.
- [4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government, data table: 9/28/2025, Pew Research Center, 17
- 4:08
DECLINE ≠ REPEATING CYCLE
Pew's series shows a decline since 1958, but it covers less than one 80-year cycle, so it cannot show a repeat.
- Checked[4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government
- 4:11
OUR TEST · FALL AT EVERY CHANGE? · REBUILD · The staircase was ours.
Our first test expected trust to fall at every change of turning. That staircase was our own reading, not a prediction found in the book passages we checked; the excerpt says that in past Crises “Leaders led, and people trusted them.” The test was withdrawn on 20 September 2026.
- 4:24
HOW MUCH HISTORY DO WE HAVE? · PEW / GOVERNMENT · ONE HIGH READING (bar from 1958 to 2025 on a 1946–2040 timeline)
- [4] Pew fact sheet, trust in government, data table
- 4:27
GSS / OTHER PEOPLE · NO HIGH READINGS (bar from 1972)
missingThe GSS began in 1972, after the authors' High (1946–1964), so its average for the High is missing, not zero.
- Missing in[9] NORC General Social Survey 1972–2024, first conducted in 1972
- 4:36
ONE 80-YEAR LAP
- 4:41
DECLINE OBSERVED · INCONCLUSIVE
- 5:03
03 / RECESSION STARTS · 44 · RECESSION PEAK YEARS · 1796–2026
- 5:13
~1/5 · YEARS IN “WINTER”
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 5:16
44 DARTS · ~9 IN WINTER
An illustration of the equal-years baseline, not an experiment we ran.
- 5:26
RECESSION STARTS IN WINTER · ~9 UNIFORM-YEAR BASELINE · 7 OBSERVED · NO EXTRA CLUSTERING
As the screen notes, this counts starts, not severity, and recession risk is not the same every year.
- 5:41
OUR SPREADSHEET · DESCRIPTIVE ROW 1–5 · NOT SEPARATE CRISES
Our first banking count used the 15 US rows of Reinhart and Rogoff's Table A5, which are historical summaries. The paper's own start-year list, Table A3, has 12 US dates, and the two lists differ. That selection was withdrawn on 20 September 2026.
- Checked[12] Reinhart & Rogoff, NBER Working Paper 14587, Appendix Table A5, pp. A5-17–A5-18 (United States); Appendix Table A3, pp. 58–61
- 5:53
BANKING CRISIS EPISODES · 16 EPISODES
- [13] Harvard BFFS global crisis data, 2016 file, Excel file, Sheet1, United States, column “Banking Crisis”
- 5:58
2.5 · UNIFORM-YEAR BASELINE · 4 · BEGIN IN WINTER
- [13] Harvard BFFS global crisis data, 2016 file
- 6:02
1.58× / CLEARS 1.5× BAR
- [13] Harvard BFFS global crisis data, 2016 file
- 6:08
THE RESULT DEPENDS ON THE LIST · RECESSIONS · NO EXTRA CLUSTERING
- 6:15
BANKING · CLEARS THIS COUNT
- [13] Harvard BFFS global crisis data, 2016 file
- 6:19
BROADER CYCLE: INCONCLUSIVE
The video's verdict on an economic-crisis cycle is INCONCLUSIVE: recessions show no extra clustering, banking clears our bar on one small list, and the answer depends on which chronology and years are used.
- 6:30
2005 · FORECAST IN 1997
The 1997 book expected a sudden spark to start a Crisis mood around 2005.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 6:34
2008 · HOWE’S LATER CHOICE
Howe's later dating of the start. The on-screen source line cites Howe (2023); the 2008 dating is documented here from his 2019 interview.
- [14] Howe, MacroVoices interview, 2019, Howe: “now we would date it 2008 with the GFC”
- 6:37
3 YEARS · PARTIAL CREDIT
- 6:43
LATER EVENT CHOICE · NOT A SPECIFIC CRASH FORECAST
- 6:52
2020 CLIMAX · 2026 RESOLUTION · Conditional on the initial spark arriving on schedule
In the 1997 book both dates depend on the Crisis catalyst arriving on schedule.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 6:59
2020 CLIMAX · NOT IDENTIFIED
- 7:01
2026 RESOLUTION · OPEN THROUGH 2028
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 7:07
BEFORE 2025
The 1997 book says America will pass through a “great gate in history” sometime before 2025.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 7:10
BEFORE MID-2030s
- 7:15
WHAT COUNTS AS A GATE? · UNDEFINED ≠ A FAIR MISS
- 7:24
1 · PARTIAL TIMING MATCH · 2005 → 2008 PARTLY
- 7:31
Predictive skill is not established by one match
One scored timing claim is too few to show skill at forecasting.
- 7:34
POLITICAL VIOLENCE · ~1,600 · EVENTS · SINCE 1780
Rounded from 1,590 events.
- [16] Turchin, Journal of Peace Research 2012, abstract: 1,590 political violence events, 1780–2010
- 7:44
1870 · 1920 · 1970 · ~50 YRS · ~50 YRS
Peak years reported in the paper, not a series we rebuilt.
- [16] Turchin, Journal of Peace Research 2012, abstract: a 50-year oscillation with peaks around 1870, 1920 and 1970
- 7:51
POLITICAL VIOLENCE ≠ INSTITUTIONS + GENERATIONS
- 8:02
2010 · FORECAST
- [17] Turchin, Nature 2010, “The next decade is likely to be a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe”
- 8:07
2020 · AUTHORS’ ASSESSMENT · 2018 · DATA THROUGH · OBSERVATIONS · ENDS 2018 · NOT A VERDICT ON 2020 EVENTS
Turchin and a co-author assessed Turchin's own 2010 forecast, using data that ended in 2018.
- [18] Turchin & Korotayev, PLOS ONE 2020, Discussion: “The 2010 prediction was accurate”; “our data currently extends only into 2018”
- 8:17
INDEPENDENT CHECKS
A later study by another author tested key mechanisms of Turchin's theory on US data.
- [19] Georgescu, PLOS ONE 2023, abstract: “The predictions are not supported by the data.”
- 8:39
ORION / THE HUNTER · URSA MAJOR / THE BEAR · LIBRA / THE SCALES (illustrated star patterns)
Star patterns redrawn and simplified from the IAU charts; the layout is not to scale.
- [20] IAU constellation charts, charts ORI, UMA and LIB
- 8:46
1773 · 1860 · 1929 · ? · THEORY BUILT HERE · FORECAST
From the Revolution onward the authors describe three completed Crises and a proposed current one. The first three were history when the theory was written; the fourth was a forecast.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 9:06
1943–1960 · PROPHET
The authors' label for the Boom generation.
- [8] Howe interview, 2009, Boomers, “born between 1943 and 1960”
- 9:15
1961–1981 · NOMAD
The authors' label for Generation X.
- [8] Howe interview, 2009, Gen Xers, “born between 1961 and 1981”
- 9:20
1982 → · HERO
The authors' label for the Millennial generation.
- [8] Howe interview, 2009, Millennials, “born from 1982”
- 9:25
ARTIST (the generation after the Millennials)
The authors' label for the next generation.
- [8] Howe interview, 2009, a new Artist generation born from around 2004 or 2005
- 9:29
BIRTHDAY → JOB? · LABELS ≠ PERSONALITY TEST
- 9:36
COMPARE LIKE WITH LIKE · GENERATION · GETTING OLDER · SHARED EVENTS
Pew Research Center's guidance: compare generations at similar ages and separate them from events that affect all ages.
- [21] Pew Research Center, generations, 2023, compare generations “at similar stages of life”; “period effects”
- 10:05
01 STRICT TIMING · DOESN’T HOLD
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 10:10
02 TRUST CYCLE · INCONCLUSIVE
- 10:15
03 ECONOMIC CYCLE · INCONCLUSIVE
- 10:22
04 PREDICTIONS · PARTLY
- 10:31
ANOMALY IN THE SEQUENCE · THE AUTHORS NOTE AN ANOMALY, TOO
The 1997 book calls its Civil War cycle the only true anomaly: a short Crisis that produced no Hero generation.
- [2] Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- 10:40
NEXT CRISIS: ? · 80.0000… · No reliable date established by these checks
These checks do not establish a date for the next crisis.
Our calculations
- Years between the selected war end dates
1865 − 1783 = 82 years; 1945 − 1865 = 80 years; 2026 − 1945 = 81 years. The end years are the last years of the American Revolution, the Civil War and World War II for the United States.
- [1] VA fact sheet, America's Wars
- Gaps between the authors' Crisis start years
The Crisis eras start in 1459, 1569, 1675, 1773, 1860 and 1929, giving gaps of 110, 106, 98, 87 and 69 years (range 69–110, mean 94.0). Adding the book's 1997 projection of 2005 adds a gap of 76; the six gaps average 546 ÷ 6 = 91.0 years. Our original rule was 80 years, give or take 10: only two of the six gaps (87 and 76) fall within 70–90 and the mean does not, so the strict schedule grades DOESN'T HOLD. The mean of 91 is inside the book's own range of roughly 80 to 100 years. Reproducible with analysis/run_tests.py in our method repository.
- Trust averages by turning
Pew lists 163 poll readings from December 1958 to September 2025. Grouped by the authors' turnings, with a boundary year counted in the turning that starts that year: the High (to 1963) has one reading, 73% in 1958; the Awakening (1964–1983) has 19 readings averaging 40.6%; the Unraveling (1984–2004) 91 readings averaging 35.3%; the Crisis (from 2005) 52 readings averaging 22.7%. Shown rounded as 41%, 35% and 23%. Every reading counts once, so years with more polls weigh more. Reproducible with analysis/run_tests.py.
- How much of an 80-year cycle the surveys cover
Pew's series runs from 1958 to 2025 (67 years) and the GSS from 1972 to 2024 (52 years). Neither spans one 80-year cycle, so neither can show one repeating.
- Recession peak years against the calendar
44 business-cycle peak years: Davis's 10 annual peaks from 1796 to 1839 (his alternative chronology) and the NBER's 34 monthly peaks from June 1857 to February 2020, each counted by calendar year. The authors' Crisis windows, both end years included, cover 46 of the 231 years from 1796 to 2026, about one fifth (2026 is a partial year). Expected with every year equally likely: 44 × 46 ÷ 231 = 8.76, shown as about 9. Observed: 7 (1860, 1865, 1929, 1937, 1945, 2007 and 2020). Ratio 7 ÷ 8.76 = 0.80, below our bar of 1.5. This is an expected value, not a simulation or a significance test. Reproducible with analysis/run_tests.py.
- Banking crisis episodes against the calendar
In the Harvard BFFS 2016 file the United States has a Banking Crisis value of 0 or 1 for every year from 1800 to 2014; 2015 and 2016 are n/a and left out. Each unbroken run of crisis years counts as one episode that starts in its first year, giving 16 episodes: 1814, 1817, 1825, 1837, 1841, 1857, 1861, 1864, 1873, 1884, 1893, 1907, 1914, 1929, 1984 and 2007. The Crisis windows cover 34 of the 215 years, so the equal-years expectation is 16 × 34 ÷ 215 = 2.53, shown as 2.5. Observed: 4 (1861, 1864, 1929, 2007). Ratio 4 ÷ 2.53 = 1.58, above our bar of 1.5. The grouping rule is ours. Reproducible with analysis/run_tests.py.
- Scoring the dated predictions
Our rule from the original method: a forecast “around” a year is a hit within ±2 years and partial within ±3 to 5 years, judged against the event the author later named. Crisis start: forecast around 2005, Howe later named 2008, three years later, so partial. Climax around 2020: no event named by the authors in the sources we checked, not scored. Resolution around 2026: the hit window runs through 2028, still open. Great gate before 2025: no rule for what counts as the gate, not scored. One scored claim, and it is partial, so the grade is PARTLY. The scoring sheet is PREDICTIONS.md in our method repository.
Documents
- Method, data, calculations and the correction log are public at github.com/mikehoolio/owlfox-tested-01. Running analysis/run_tests.py there reproduces the schedule, trust and economic calculations; the prediction scoring is in PREDICTIONS.md.
- These are exploratory checks. The method was revised on 20 September 2026, after results had been seen; every change is logged in the repository.
- The video gives two checks, the trust cycle and the economic cycle, the verdict INCONCLUSIVE. That is not one of the verdicts used on this page, so those results are listed as NOT SHOWN.
- Archive-style photographs in the video are AI-generated illustrations, not documentary images.
- [1]
U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
America's Wars (interactive fact sheet)
Retrieved 26 September 2026
The page says it was last updated on 15 July 2026.
Lists the American Revolution as 1775–1783, the Civil War as 1861–1865 and World War II as 1941–1945.
- [2]
Broadway Books
The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (William Strauss and Neil Howe · ISBN 055306682X)
Published 1997 · Retrieved 20 September 2026
Internet Archive record of the 1997 first edition, a borrow-only scan. The record itself was re-opened on 26 September 2026.
The dated passages used here (the Crisis dates, the 2005 catalyst, the 2020 climax and 2026 resolution, the great gate before 2025, the Civil War anomaly) were read in Open Library's public search-inside snippets on 17 and 20 September 2026; the snippets give no page numbers. On 26 September 2026 that search required human verification, so they were not re-read.
Used at 0:16 · 0:57 · 1:12 · 1:20 · 1:55 · 2:02 · 2:13 · 2:48 · 2:52 · 3:05 · 3:12 · 3:30 · 4:11 · 5:13 · 6:30 · 6:37 · 6:43 · 6:52 · 6:59 · 7:01 · 7:07 · 7:15 · 7:24 · 8:46 · 9:29 · 10:05 · 10:22 · 10:31
- [3]
City Journal
Present at the Destruction (review of Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning Is Here) (N. S. Lyons)
Published 3 September 2023 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
A review that quotes the 2023 book; used here to confirm the book's wording.
- [4]
Pew Research Center
Public Trust in Government: 1958-2025 (Fact sheet)
Published 4 December 2025 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
Question: trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” or “most of the time”. The data table lists 163 poll readings from December 1958 to September 2025 by Pew Research Center, the National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and CNN. The smoothed line is a three-survey moving average from 1976 to February 2025; earlier readings and September 2025 are single polls.
Used at 0:37 · 3:43 · 3:46 · 3:55 · 3:59 · 4:03 · 4:08 · 4:24 · 4:36 · 4:41 · 10:10
- [5]
Hedgeye Risk Management
Macrocosm 2015 invitation and speaker biographies
Published 2015 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
Event invitation (PDF). Its speaker biography of Neil Howe is the source for his education.
Used at 0:46
- [6]
The Washington Post
Bill Strauss, 60; Political Insider Who Stepped Over Into Comedy
Published 19 December 2007 · Retrieved 21 September 2026
Date from the article's address. The site did not respond to our requests on 26 September 2026; the retrieval date is the production's source check.
Used at 0:49
- [7]
Penguin Random House Higher Education
Published 29 December 1997 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
Page for the paperback edition, on sale 29 December 1997, which now carries the later subtitle What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny. The excerpt is marked © 1998.
Used at 0:49 · 1:06 · 1:12 · 1:20 · 1:26 · 1:34 · 1:45 · 1:55 · 2:02 · 3:19 · 3:22 · 3:55 · 4:11 · 7:51
- [8]
- [9]
NORC at the University of Chicago
General Social Survey 1972–2024, cumulative data file (release 3a)
Retrieved 26 September 2026
Variable TRUST: “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can't be too careful in dealing with people?” The survey was first conducted in 1972. Yearly percentages weighted with WTSSPS are our calculation from the cumulative file, downloaded on 17 September 2026.
- [10]
- [11]
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published February 2005 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
Working paper issued in February 2005; published in the Journal of Economic History in 2006 (vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 103–121), which the video cites as Davis (2006).
- [12]
National Bureau of Economic Research
Published December 2008 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
The source of the banking list the episode withdrew. The video description links the authors' Harvard page for the same 2008 paper; that page refused automated access on 26 September 2026.
- [13]
Harvard Business School, Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability
Retrieved 26 September 2026
Data collected by Carmen Reinhart with Ken Rogoff, Christoph Trebesch and Vincent Reinhart. The file offered for download is dated 23 September 2016 (SHA-256 7b74a710942bb311223be23f84e305994ee23575af821f4169d97b88e7fe400e).
- [14]
- [15]
Porter & Co.
Published 23 August 2024 · Retrieved 20 September 2026
The excerpt was open to read when the production checked it on 20 September 2026. On 26 September 2026 the page showed only its introduction; the rest is for paying members.
Used at 7:10
- [16]
Journal of Peace Research
Published July 2012 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
The publisher's page refused automated access on 26 September 2026; the abstract was read from the article's DOI metadata record (Crossref).
- [17]
- [18]
- [19]
- [20]
International Astronomical Union
Constellation charts: Orion, Ursa Major and Libra
Retrieved 26 September 2026
Used at 8:39
- [21]
Pew Research Center
How Pew Research Center will report on generations moving forward (Kim Parker)
Published 22 May 2023 · Retrieved 26 September 2026
Used at 9:36
Corrections
26 September 2026 · 3:46
Was: The trust card from 3:46 to 4:11 describes Pew’s question as trusting the government to do what is right “most / all of the time”.
Now: Pew’s wording is “just about always” or “most of the time”. The figures are unchanged.
Corrected in: The episode’s source page and the video description
26 September 2026 · 5:03
Was: The titles “RECESSION STARTS” from 5:02 to 5:41 count the years of business-cycle peaks.
Now: They are peak years; NBER dates a recession from the month after a peak. Counting those months instead gives the same result.
Corrected in: The episode’s source page and the video description
26 September 2026 · 6:34
Was: Source lines from 6:30 to 7:34 credit Neil Howe’s later dating of the crisis to 2008 to “Howe (2023)”.
Now: The source we verified for that dating is Neil Howe’s MacroVoices interview of 4 April 2019.
Corrected in: The episode’s source page and the video description
Found an error? Email [email protected] with the time stamp and your source, or leave a comment under the video.
Data and licences
- Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here. The opinions expressed herein, including any implications for policy, are those of the author and not of Pew Research Center.
- General Social Survey data: NORC at the University of Chicago, GSS 1972–2024 cumulative file, release 3a, variable TRUST weighted with WTSSPS. Only yearly weighted percentages are used.
- Our code, text and derived tables in github.com/mikehoolio/owlfox-tested-01 are licensed CC BY 4.0. Third-party data stay under their providers' terms.