The Oil Crisis Is Choking the World — You’re Already Paying

On screen, in order

1. 0:17

   WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST / RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR

   
   • [1] United Nations – Secretary-General, Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033)
   • [2] IEA · 2026-09-11
2. 0:24

   28 FEB 2026 · US AND ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES AGAINST IRAN

   

   The arrows show schematic directions, not individual verified strike sites.

   • [1] United Nations – Secretary-General, Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033)
   • [3] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) Condemning Iran's 'Egregious Attacks' against Neighbours as Middle East Violence Rapidly Escalates (SC/16315)
3. 0:30

   AFTER A THIRD ROUND OF INDIRECT US–IRAN TALKS · MEDIATED BY OMAN

   
   • [1] United Nations – Secretary-General, Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033)
4. 0:40

   ALI KHAMENEI · KILLED IN THE STRIKES

   

   The photo depicts the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, not his successor Mojtaba. Iran’s foreign minister described the killing at the UN on 25 September; the report was published 26 September.

   • [4] IRNA (Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, UN stakeout statement), Foreign minister outlines Iran's seven-day plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz
   • [1] United Nations – Secretary-General, Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033)
   • [5] Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran (leader.ir), Leader Message for Sacred Defence Week and Seyyed Hasan Nasrallah's Martyrdom Anniversary
5. 0:47

   WHITE HOUSE: ELIMINATE THE IMMINENT NUCLEAR THREAT / DESTROY BALLISTIC MISSILE ARSENAL / DEGRADE PROXY NETWORKS / CRIPPLE NAVAL FORCES

   

   The stated objectives and threat assessment belong to the US government.

   • [6] The White House, Peace Through Strength: President Trump Launches Operation Epic Fury to Crush Iranian Regime, End Nuclear Threat
6. 0:58

   ISRAEL’S DELEGATE: PROTECT ISRAELI CIVILIANS

   
   • [7] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Iran Strikes Could Trigger Wider Conflict in Middle East, Secretary-General Warns, as Security Council Speakers Call for Urgent Restraint, Return to Talks (SC/16307, 10112th meeting)
7. 1:01

   IRAN’S DELEGATE: VICTIM OF AGGRESSION / HOSTILE FORCES’ BASES AS LEGITIMATE MILITARY OBJECTIVES

   
   • [7] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Iran Strikes Could Trigger Wider Conflict in Middle East, Secretary-General Warns, as Security Council Speakers Call for Urgent Restraint, Return to Talks (SC/16307, 10112th meeting)
   • [3] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) Condemning Iran's 'Egregious Attacks' against Neighbours as Middle East Violence Rapidly Escalates (SC/16315)
8. 1:19

   IRANIAN ATTACKS: ISRAEL, BAHRAIN, IRAQ, JORDAN, KUWAIT, QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA, UAE

   

   The Secretary-General condemned the US–Israeli strikes and Iran’s subsequent attacks. Schematic arrows do not locate individual attacks.

   • [1] United Nations – Secretary-General, Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033)
   • [7] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Iran Strikes Could Trigger Wider Conflict in Middle East, Secretary-General Warns, as Security Council Speakers Call for Urgent Restraint, Return to Talks (SC/16307, 10112th meeting)
9. 1:28

   RADIO TRANSMISSIONS: HORMUZ CLOSED · UKMTO COULD NOT VERIFY · NOT LEGALLY BINDING

   

   UKMTO’s assessment of the transmissions, 28 February 2026; not a statement that the waterway was legally closed.

   • [8] UKMTO / Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC), UKMTO Advisory 003-26 Update 001 – Advisory (28 Feb 2026)
10. 1:45

    LESS THAN 10% OF PRE-CONFLICT FLOWS · HORMUZ

    

    Data as of 11 March 2026.

    • [9] IEA, IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict
11. 1:50

    AROUND 20 MILLION BARRELS/DAY IN 2025 · ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF SEABORNE OIL TRADE

    
    • [9] IEA, IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict
12. 1:59

    400 MILLION BARRELS · IEA MEMBERS’ EMERGENCY STOCK RELEASE AGREED 11 MAR 2026

    

    Agreed release, not proof of completed delivery of every barrel.

    • [9] IEA, IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict
13. 2:03

    UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 2817 · 11 MAR 2026 · ADOPTED 13–0, TWO ABSTENTIONS

    
    • [3] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) Condemning Iran's 'Egregious Attacks' against Neighbours as Middle East Violence Rapidly Escalates (SC/16315)
14. 2:09

    IRAN: HORMUZ LIES WITHIN IRAN’S TERRITORIAL WATERS

    
    • [10] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), Immediately Restore Freedom of Navigation through Strait of Hormuz, Speakers Urge in Security Council Condemning Critical Waterway's Use as 'Bargaining Chip' (SC/16349)
15. 2:12

    BAHRAIN: IRAN HAS NO RIGHT TO CLOSE THIS WATERWAY

    
    • [11] United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage), China, Russian Federation Veto Security Council Draft Resolution by Gulf States to Safeguard International Shipping through Strait of Hormuz (SC/16330)
16. 2:16

    UNITED STATES: UNLAWFULLY CLOSING HORMUZ

    
    • [12] U.S. Department of State – Office of the Legal Adviser, Operation Epic Fury and International Law (Reed D. Rubinstein, Legal Adviser)
17. 2:20

    8 APR · CEASEFIRE

    
    • [13] European Council (joint leaders' statement), Leaders' statement on the two-week ceasefire concluded between the United States and Iran
18. 2:24

    13 APR · US NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN PORTS

    

    US military account of its own operation. The date is also discussed in the episode’s archived war factcheck.

    • [14] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz
19. 2:27

    17 JUN · MEMORANDUM SIGNED · END FIGHTING, REOPEN STRAIT

    
    • [15] United Nations – Secretary-General, Secretary-General Welcomes United States-Iran Peace Deal (SG/SM/23178)
    • [16] The White House (photo gallery), President Donald J. Trump signs a Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States at the Palace of Versailles, France on June 17, 2026
    • [17] The White House, President Trump's Iran Agreement Is America First in Action
20. 2:35

    CENTCOM: IRAN ATTACKED THREE COMMERCIAL VESSELS

    
    • [18] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. Forces Complete New Round of Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran
21. 2:39

    IRAN: US FAILED TO HONOUR COMMITMENTS ALMOST IMMEDIATELY

    
    • [19] IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's official agency), In letter to UNSC, Iran complains over repeated US violation of Islamabad MoU
22. 2:43

    7 JUL · US STRIKES RESUME

    

    CENTCOM account of its own strikes; its attribution of the preceding attacks remains CLAIMED.

    • [18] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. Forces Complete New Round of Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran
23. 2:45

    14 JUL · US BLOCKADE RESUMES

    

    W26 announced resumption on 13 July; W49 states operations resumed on 14 July.

    • [20] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), U.S. Forces to Resume Naval Blockade Against Iran
    • [21] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), CENTCOM Maintains Strict Enforcement of U.S. Blockade Against Iran
24. 2:50

    HOUTHI MISSILE ATTACKS ON SAUDI ARABIA FROM 13 JUL / COMMERCIAL VESSELS FROM 22 JUL

    
    • [22] United Nations – Security Council (press statement), Security Council Press Statement on Yemen (SC/16429)
25. 2:57

    HOUTHI STATEMENT: BLOCKADE FOR BLOCKADE

    
    • [23] IRNA (relaying the Houthi military spokesperson), Yemeni armed forces declare full naval blockade against Saudi Arabia
26. 3:00

    SEIZED 10–12 SEP · MOCHA, DHUBAB, PERIM, ZUQAR, HANISH ISLANDS

    

    JMIC advisory issued 1 October 2026. The map locations are explanatory.

    • [24] Joint Maritime Information Center (published by UKMTO), Update 101 to JMIC Advisory Note: 01 March – 01 October 2026 – Regional Tension: Impact on Maritime Security
27. 3:07

    10 SEP 2026 · EAST–WEST PIPELINE ATTACKS

    
    • [25] Saudi Press Agency (official source at the Ministry of Energy), East–West Pipeline Shut Down as a Precaution Following Multiple Attacks
28. 3:14

    PIPELINE SHUT DOWN AS A PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE

    
    • [25] Saudi Press Agency (official source at the Ministry of Energy), East–West Pipeline Shut Down as a Precaution Following Multiple Attacks
29. 3:17

    SAUDI FOREIGN MINISTRY: DRONES LAUNCHED FROM IRAQ

    
    • [26] Saudi Press Agency (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Saudi Arabia Strongly Condemns Drone Attack on East-West Pipeline by Drones Launched from Iraq
30. 3:21

    IEA: ATTACKS BY IRAN-BACKED GROUPS IN YEMEN AND IRAQ POSE RISKS

    

    Undated IEA topic page, retrieved 6 October 2026; not an assertion of a precise launch site.

    • [27] IEA, Key facts on the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas markets, and the IEA's response (topic page: The Middle East and Global Energy Markets)
31. 3:25

    7.6 mb/d · FLOWS THROUGH HORMUZ, AUGUST 2026

    
    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
32. 3:29

    −13.1 mb/d BELOW PRE-WAR LEVELS

    

    Data as of 31 August 2026.

    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
33. 3:35

    >10 mb/d OF GULF OIL PRODUCTION SHUT IN · AUGUST 2026

    
    • [2] IEA · 2026-09-11
34. 3:37

    TANKERS STRUCK BY UNKNOWN PROJECTILES · HORMUZ

    

    Data as of 6 October 2026. UKMTO reports of incidents between 28 September and 5 October; the episode does not assign responsibility where UKMTO did not.

    • [29] UKMTO, Recent Incidents (UKMTO #140–#157, 21 Sept – 6 Oct 2026)
35. 3:45

    JMIC: THREAT LEVEL SEVERE · RECENT IRANIAN ATTACKS

    

    Data as of 1 October 2026. The advisory’s attributed maritime-security assessment, issued 1 October.

    • [24] Joint Maritime Information Center (published by UKMTO), Update 101 to JMIC Advisory Note: 01 March – 01 October 2026 – Regional Tension: Impact on Maritime Security
36. 3:48

    CENTCOM: US BLOCKADE STILL ENFORCED · 5 OCT

    

    Data as of 5 October 2026. Evidence of the US military’s reported operation, not independent verification of each interception.

    • [21] U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), CENTCOM Maintains Strict Enforcement of U.S. Blockade Against Iran
37. 3:53

    IRAN’S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER: CLOSED UNTIL SEVEN CONDITIONS MET

    

    Data as of 4 October 2026.

    • [30] IRNA (Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf), Hormuz Strait to remain closed until Iran's seven conditions are met: Ghalibaf
38. 3:58

    QATAR: MEDIATION CONTINUES / MESSAGES EXCHANGED BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND TEHRAN

    

    Data as of 6 October 2026. Qatar’s report about its own diplomatic activity; no peace agreement is inferred.

    • [31] Qatar – Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry: Mediation Efforts Between Washington and Tehran Continue
39. 4:12

    SHOPPING BASKET → REFINERY → TANKER → OIL FIELD

    

    An explanatory chain. The reverse camera journey follows the narration; illustrative models are not specific sites.

    • [32] EIA · undated
    • [33] EIA · undated
40. 4:39

    INGREDIENT PRICE ≠ FINISHED MEAL

    

    An explanatory analogy for refining: the crude ingredient must be processed into finished fuel. No potato or meal prices are measured.

    • [32] EIA · undated
41. 4:44

    CRUDE ≠ FINISHED FUEL · PETROL / DIESEL / JET FUEL

    
    • [32] EIA · undated
42. 4:58

    LIGHTER CRUDE / HEAVIER, MORE SULPHUR

    

    Qualitative categories. No product yield or sulphur percentage is invented.

    • [34] EIA · 2024-06-20
43. 5:20

    PERSIAN GULF / HORMUZ / GULF OF OMAN

    

    Coastline: Natural Earth 1:10m. Routes are schematic; the tanker stays on water.

    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
44. 5:32

    SEPTEMBER ASSESSMENT · HORMUZ FLOWS RESTRICTED

    
    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
45. 5:32

    RED SEA AND GULF OF OMAN ALTERNATIVE ROUTES

    

    Yanbu and Fujairah indicate route endpoints, not asserted attack sites.

    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
46. 5:43

    RED SEA SECURITY DISRUPTIONS / EAST–WEST PIPELINE INTERRUPTIONS

    

    The source describes early-September events. No pinpoint of an attack on Yanbu is shown.

    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
47. 5:50

    DATED ACCOUNT · NOT A LIVE CLOSURE MAP

    
    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
48. 6:01

    EMERGENCY RESERVES / OTHER PRODUCERS / REDUCED DEMAND

    

    Separate responses, with no quantities added together.

    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
49. 6:23

    INVENTORY DECLINE · 507 MILLION BARRELS · FEB–AUG 2026

    

    Observed global oil inventories. This is a decline, not the quantity left or only emergency reserves. The physical barrels are illustrative.

    • [2] IEA · 2026-09-11
50. 6:41

    RESTRICTED PASSAGE / LONGER JOURNEY

    

    General 2024 background, not a measurement of this tanker route.

    • [35] UNCTAD · 2024-10-22
51. 7:01

    1× CYCLE TIME: 2 DELIVERIES / 2× CYCLE TIME: 1 DELIVERY

    

    Hypothetical; same load, same period. All of the complete round-trip time is compared.

    How we worked this out

52. 7:53

    RUSSIA’S WAR WITH UKRAINE · NOW IN ITS FIFTH YEAR

    
    • [2] IEA · 2026-09-11
53. 8:08

    ONLY FIVE MAJOR RUSSIAN REFINERIES UNTOUCHED BY UKRAINIAN DRONES

    

    Data as of 31 August 2026. IEA’s 17 September analysis, describing late August. It does not establish that these plants remain untouched today.

    • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
54. 8:11

    EASTERN SIBERIA / FAR EAST · 3,500–6,500 KM FROM UKRAINIAN BORDER

    

    The distance range is reported by IEA. The plant icons are schematic, not identified facilities.

    • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
55. 8:11

    RANGES: OUR CALCULATION (GREAT-CIRCLE) · SITES SCHEMATIC

    

    The drawn circles illustrate the sourced range; they do not identify attacks or model a weapon’s range.

    How we worked this out

56. 8:15

    PROCESSING INTERRUPTED · CRUDE CAN STILL BE AVAILABLE

    

    Illustrates a mechanism without a quantified damage size or product yield.

    • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
57. 8:27

    RUSSIA / CHINA / MIDDLE EAST · REDUCED REFINING ACTIVITY

    
    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
58. 8:46

    US EXPORTS · RECORD Q2 2026 · DISTILLATE + JET FUEL

    

    Historical quarter. Not today’s export volume.

    • [38] EIA · 2026-07-15
59. 8:55

    US REFINERY UTILISATION · 97% · WEEK ENDING 11 SEP 2026

    

    A weekly US figure, not worldwide spare capacity. Figure and date persist through the following qualification.

    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
60. 9:03

    NOT A MEASURE OF WORLDWIDE SPARE CAPACITY

    

    The weekly 97% US utilisation reading does not measure worldwide spare capacity.

    • Checked[37] EIA · 2026-09-18
61. 9:17

    CRACK SPREAD

    
    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [39] EIA · 2013-02-04
62. 9:29

    WHOLESALE DIESEL − CRUDE = CRACK SPREAD

    

    Same market and same units. The difference is a margin indicator, not refinery net profit or a cost receipt.

    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [40] CME Group · undated
63. 9:39

    OPERATING COSTS STILL HAVE TO BE PAID

    

    Explanatory qualification; no operating cost number is asserted.

    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [40] CME Group · undated
64. 9:39

    CRACK SPREAD ≠ NET PROFIT

    

    The formula is a margin indicator; operating costs still have to be paid.

    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [40] CME Group · undated
65. 9:49

    DIESEL CRACK SPREAD >$100 / bbl · US GULF COAST / NORTHWEST EUROPE

    

    September 2026 regional wholesale observation, not a global retail diesel price.

    • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
66. 10:07

    $6.382 / US gal · US ON-HIGHWAY DIESEL · TAXES INCLUDED · 28 SEP 2026

    
    • [41] EIA · 2026-09-29
67. 10:11

    $6.529 TO $6.382

    

    US average on-highway diesel, 21 September versus 28 September. Both readings include taxes.

    • [41] EIA · 2026-09-29
68. 10:30

    TRUCKS / TRAINS / FARM MACHINERY / CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT

    
    • [33] EIA · undated
69. 10:56

    HYPOTHETICAL DELIVERY-COST EXAMPLE · £100 TOTAL: £80 OTHER + £20 FUEL

    

    Invented inputs are labelled from the first visible example frame.

    How we worked this out

70. 11:05

    £120 TOTAL · +20% · £80 OTHER + £40 FUEL

    

    The delivery cost increases 20%, not the entire supermarket receipt. Invented example inputs; other costs remain unchanged. The result builds from 7:09 and persists into the following shot.

    How we worked this out

71. 11:19

    WEATHER / TRADE / TRANSPORT

    

    Multiple possible drivers; diesel’s separate contribution is not quantified.

    • [42] FAO · 2026-10-02
72. 11:31

    +1.5% · FAO FOOD COMMODITY INDEX · SEPTEMBER VERSUS AUGUST 2026

    

    Internationally traded commodity index; neither a local grocery basket nor a diesel-only effect.

    • [42] FAO · 2026-10-02
73. 11:40

    SUPERMARKET RECEIPT · LOCAL PRICES VARY · NO UNIVERSAL %

    

    The episode’s sources do not establish a universal supermarket price increase. No local percentage is invented.

74. 12:11

    RESERVES / OTHER PRODUCERS / REDUCED DEMAND

    
    • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
75. 12:26

    G7 · 2 OCT 2026 · ANNOUNCED RESERVE RELEASES

    

    A commitment to implementation with diesel front-loaded, not verification that all fuel has arrived. The remaining part of March commitments is not added again as a new release.

    • [43] G7 / UK FCDO · 2026-10-02
    • [44] IEA · 2026-10-02
76. 12:38

    WHEN DOES IT END? · NOT SHOWN / EVERY GROCERY BILL? · NO UNIVERSAL %

    

    No reliable ending date or universal grocery-bill percentage is established by the sources used in this episode. This is a scope limit, not a claim that no forecast anywhere exists.

    • Checked[28] IEA · 2026-09-18
    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [42] FAO · 2026-10-02
    • [43] G7 / UK FCDO · 2026-10-02

Also said in the narration

1. 0:00

   The truck delivering your food has a fuel bill too.

   

   A cost-transmission mechanism, not a measured price rise for every viewer.

   • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
   • [33] EIA · undated
2. 4:21

   It needs a finished fuel that its engine can actually use.

   

   A general chain, not a claim that every fuel travels by sea.

   • [32] EIA · undated
   • [33] EIA · undated
3. 4:45

   A refinery separates and processes it into products including petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

   
   • [32] EIA · undated
4. 4:59

   Others are heavier or contain more sulphur.

   
   • [34] EIA · 2024-06-20
5. 5:32

   In its September assessment, the International Energy Agency described Gulf production and exports as heavily restricted by the conflict in the Middle East.

   

   Dated account, not a live closure statement.

   • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
6. 5:43

   The agency described attacks in the Red Sea reducing those alternative flows, and an attack shutting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in early September.

   

   No unsupported precise attack location is asserted.

   • [28] IEA · 2026-09-18
7. 6:42

   UN Trade and Development has documented how disruptions around major sea passages lengthen routes and put pressure on shipping costs.

   

   General 2024 background; no current freight-rate figure.

   • [35] UNCTAD · 2024-10-22
8. 7:59

   In a September seventeenth analysis, the International Energy Agency described Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, including equipment used to increase the output of petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

   

   No combatant’s destruction tally is used.

   • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
9. 8:22

   Some of the more complex units can also be difficult to repair.

   

   No certain repair duration is invented.

   • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17
10. 8:27

    Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration identified reduced refining activity in Russia, China and the Middle East as a reason global diesel supplies were tight.

    
    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
11. 9:31

    It is an indicator of refining margins.

    

    Not measured operating expense or net profit.

    • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18
    • [39] EIA · 2013-02-04
12. 10:30

    Diesel is used by trucks, trains, farm machinery and construction equipment.

    
    • [33] EIA · undated
13. 11:19

    Energy and transport can push costs up, but weather, harvests, trade restrictions and other factors matter too.

    

    No attribution of the index increase to diesel alone.

    • [42] FAO · 2026-10-02
14. 12:26

    On October second, G7 leaders committed to implementing further reserve releases, with diesel front-loaded.

    

    Announcement, not completed delivery.

    • [43] G7 / UK FCDO · 2026-10-02
    • [44] IEA · 2026-10-02

Our calculations

1. Complete cycle time and delivery rate

   Delivery rate = load / complete cycle time. With the same load and observation period, doubling complete cycle time reduces the rate to 1/2. The two-versus-one diagram is a hypothetical demonstration, not a measured tanker route.

   • [35] UNCTAD · 2024-10-22, Background mechanism only; the numerical inputs are invented for this illustration.

2. Fuel component of an illustrative delivery bill

   Invented inputs: total £100, of which £20 fuel and £80 other costs. Double fuel only: £80 + 2 × £20 = £120. (£120 / £100 − 1) × 100 = 20%. No industry fuel share or universal grocery-price effect is inferred.

   • [37] EIA · 2026-09-18, Background mechanism only; the numerical inputs are invented for this illustration.

3. Illustrative great-circle range bands

   Draw geodesic circles of radius 3,500 and 6,500 km from the illustrative centre 36.6° E, 50.6° N, using a spherical Earth radius of 6,371 km (d3-geo geoCircle). Labels and plant symbols are schematic. This visualisation is not an estimate of actual attack origin, individual refinery locations or drone performance.

   • [36] IEA · 2026-09-17, Reported distance range for the five untouched major refineries.

Documents

• Situation in the narration is as of 6 October 2026 and remains developing. Publication-day checks on 7 October reopened the UKMTO incident list, CENTCOM’s 5 October blockade release and Qatar’s 6 October mediation statement. Historical figures retain their stated observation dates.
• All timestamps refer to the approved motion v03 / V3.1 programme, also used for the AI-upscaled 4K version.
• Illustrations and schematic routes explain mechanisms; they are not evidence of individual military attacks. Official parties’ motives and accusations remain their claims.
• The transport and delivery-cost examples use hypothetical inputs. No global oil-exhaustion date or universal grocery-price increase is established.

1. [1]

   United Nations – Secretary-General

   Following Iran Strikes, Secretary-General Warns Security Council of Wider Conflict in Middle East, Calls for De-escalation, Immediate Ceasefire (SG/SM/23033) ↗

   Published 28 February 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 0:17 · 0:24 · 0:30 · 0:40 · 1:19

2. [2]

   IEA

   Oil Market Report - September 2026 ↗

   Published 11 September 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

   Observed global inventory decline between February and August 2026, as reported in September.

   Used at 0:17 · 3:35 · 6:23 · 7:53

3. [3]

   United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage)

   Security Council Adopts Resolution 2817 (2026) Condemning Iran's 'Egregious Attacks' against Neighbours as Middle East Violence Rapidly Escalates (SC/16315) ↗

   Published 11 March 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 0:24 · 1:01 · 2:03

4. [4]

   IRNA (Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, UN stakeout statement)

   Foreign minister outlines Iran's seven-day plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz ↗

   Published 26 September 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 0:40

5. [5]

   Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran (leader.ir)

   Leader Message for Sacred Defence Week and Seyyed Hasan Nasrallah's Martyrdom Anniversary ↗

   Published 28 September 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

   Used at 0:40

6. [6]

   The White House

   Peace Through Strength: President Trump Launches Operation Epic Fury to Crush Iranian Regime, End Nuclear Threat ↗

   Published 1 March 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 0:47

7. [7]

   United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage)

   Iran Strikes Could Trigger Wider Conflict in Middle East, Secretary-General Warns, as Security Council Speakers Call for Urgent Restraint, Return to Talks (SC/16307, 10112th meeting) ↗

   Published 28 February 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 0:58 · 1:01 · 1:19

8. [8]

   UKMTO / Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)

   UKMTO Advisory 003-26 Update 001 – Advisory (28 Feb 2026) ↗

   Published 28 February 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

   Used at 1:28

9. [9]

   IEA

   IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict ↗

   Published 11 March 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

   Used at 1:45 · 1:50 · 1:59

10. [10]

    United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage)

    Immediately Restore Freedom of Navigation through Strait of Hormuz, Speakers Urge in Security Council Condemning Critical Waterway's Use as 'Bargaining Chip' (SC/16349) ↗

    Published 27 April 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:09

11. [11]

    United Nations – Security Council (meetings coverage)

    China, Russian Federation Veto Security Council Draft Resolution by Gulf States to Safeguard International Shipping through Strait of Hormuz (SC/16330) ↗

    Published 7 April 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:12

12. [12]

    U.S. Department of State – Office of the Legal Adviser

    Operation Epic Fury and International Law (Reed D. Rubinstein, Legal Adviser) ↗

    Published 21 April 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:16

13. [13]

    European Council (joint leaders' statement)

    Leaders' statement on the two-week ceasefire concluded between the United States and Iran ↗

    Published 8 April 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Used at 2:20

14. [14]

    U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

    U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz ↗

    Published 3 May 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:24

15. [15]

    United Nations – Secretary-General

    Secretary-General Welcomes United States-Iran Peace Deal (SG/SM/23178) ↗

    Published 14 June 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:27

16. [16]

    The White House (photo gallery)

    President Donald J. Trump signs a Memorandum of Understanding between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States at the Palace of Versailles, France on June 17, 2026 ↗

    Published 18 June 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:27

17. [17]

    The White House

    President Trump's Iran Agreement Is America First in Action ↗

    Published 19 June 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:27

18. [18]

    U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

    U.S. Forces Complete New Round of Retaliatory Strikes Against Iran ↗

    Published 7 July 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:35 · 2:43

19. [19]

    IRNA (Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran's official agency)

    In letter to UNSC, Iran complains over repeated US violation of Islamabad MoU ↗

    Published 14 July 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:39

20. [20]

    U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

    U.S. Forces to Resume Naval Blockade Against Iran ↗

    Published 13 July 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:45

21. [21]

    U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)

    CENTCOM Maintains Strict Enforcement of U.S. Blockade Against Iran ↗

    Published 5 October 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Used at 2:45 · 3:48

22. [22]

    United Nations – Security Council (press statement)

    Security Council Press Statement on Yemen (SC/16429) ↗

    Published 7 August 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:50

23. [23]

    IRNA (relaying the Houthi military spokesperson)

    Yemeni armed forces declare full naval blockade against Saudi Arabia ↗

    Published 20 July 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 2:57

24. [24]

    Joint Maritime Information Center (published by UKMTO)

    Update 101 to JMIC Advisory Note: 01 March – 01 October 2026 – Regional Tension: Impact on Maritime Security ↗

    Published 1 October 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Used at 3:00 · 3:45

25. [25]

    Saudi Press Agency (official source at the Ministry of Energy)

    East–West Pipeline Shut Down as a Precaution Following Multiple Attacks ↗

    Published 11 September 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 3:07 · 3:14

26. [26]

    Saudi Press Agency (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

    Saudi Arabia Strongly Condemns Drone Attack on East-West Pipeline by Drones Launched from Iraq ↗

    Published 12 September 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 3:17

27. [27]

    IEA

    Key facts on the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas markets, and the IEA's response (topic page: The Middle East and Global Energy Markets) ↗

    Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Undated topic page; the retrieved date does not imply a publication date.

    Used at 3:21

28. [28]

    IEA

    Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall ↗

    Published 18 September 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    September account of restricted Gulf flows and route interruptions. The episode does not assert that every route remains closed today.

    Used at 3:25 · 3:29 · 5:20 · 5:32 · 5:43 · 5:50 · 6:01 · 12:11 · 12:38

29. [29]

    UKMTO

    Recent Incidents (UKMTO #140–#157, 21 Sept – 6 Oct 2026) ↗

    Published 6 October 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Used at 3:37

30. [30]

    IRNA (Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf)

    Hormuz Strait to remain closed until Iran's seven conditions are met: Ghalibaf ↗

    Published 4 October 2026 · Retrieved 6 October 2026

    Used at 3:53

31. [31]

    Qatar – Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    Foreign Ministry: Mediation Efforts Between Washington and Tehran Continue ↗

    Published 6 October 2026 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Used at 3:58

32. [32]

    EIA

    Refining crude oil - the refining process ↗

    Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Publication date not verified. General background, not a new finding.

    Used at 4:12 · 4:21 · 4:39 · 4:44 · 4:45

33. [33]

    EIA

    Use of diesel ↗

    Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Publication date not verified. General background, not a new finding.

    Used at 0:00 · 4:12 · 4:21 · 10:30

34. [34]

    EIA

    Refining crude oil - inputs and outputs ↗

    Published 20 June 2024 · Retrieved 4 October 2026

    Used at 4:58 · 4:59

35. [35]

    UNCTAD

    Review of Maritime Transport 2024 ↗

    Published 22 October 2024 · Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Official public summary opened in Chrome on 7 October 2026 after automated requests returned HTTP 403. Used for the general route-disruption mechanism, not a 2026 tanker rate or a measured route.

    Used at 6:41 · 6:42

36. [36]

    IEA

    Russian refining sector struggles amid intensifying Ukrainian attacks ↗

    Published 17 September 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    September analysis. The >$100/bbl figure concerns diesel crack spreads in two named wholesale markets.

    Used at 7:59 · 8:08 · 8:11 · 8:15 · 8:22 · 9:49

37. [37]

    EIA

    What goes into diesel prices? ↗

    Published 18 September 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    Weekly US refinery utilisation and the mechanism connecting crude prices, refining margins and diesel prices. The 97% reading is not global spare capacity.

    Used at 0:00 · 8:27 · 8:55 · 9:03 · 9:17 · 9:29 · 9:31 · 9:39 · 12:38

38. [38]

    EIA

    Petroleum markets responded to disruptions in the Middle East in the second quarter ↗

    Published 15 July 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    Historical second-quarter 2026 distillate and jet fuel export records.

    Used at 8:46

39. [39]

    EIA

    3:2:1 Crack Spread ↗

    Published 4 February 2013 · Retrieved 4 October 2026

    Used at 9:17 · 9:31

40. [40]

    CME Group

    Introduction to Crack Spreads ↗

    Retrieved 7 October 2026

    Publication date not shown on the current page.

    Additional technical background also cited on screen in Shorts S05. The simple 1:1 comparison uses matching per-barrel units; operational and fixed costs still have to be covered.

    Used at 9:29 · 9:39

41. [41]

    EIA

    Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update ↗

    Published 29 September 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    US average on-highway diesel: $6.529/US gal on 21 September and $6.382 on 28 September 2026, including taxes. These are dated readings.

    Used at 10:07 · 10:11

42. [42]

    FAO

    FAO Food Price Index rises in September amid weather concerns and transport disruptions ↗

    Published 2 October 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    International food commodity index, not a supermarket receipt. The release does not quantify diesel’s separate contribution.

    Used at 11:19 · 11:31 · 12:38

43. [43]

    G7 / UK FCDO

    G7 Leaders’ Statement on global energy security and market stability ↗

    Published 2 October 2026 · Retrieved 5 October 2026

    Announced implementation of reserve releases, with diesel front-loaded; completed delivery is not verified here.

    Used at 12:26 · 12:38

44. [44]

    IEA

    Executive Director participates in G7 Leaders’ meeting on energy security and markets ↗

    Published 2 October 2026 · Retrieved 4 October 2026

    Context for the G7 announcement; the remaining earlier commitment is not counted again as an additional release.

    Used at 12:26

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Data and licences

• Natural Earth land 1:10m is public-domain map data: naturalearthdata.com/about/terms-of-use ↗
• Illustration and source interpretation are separate. The models do not depict specific attacked sites.
• Donald J. Trump: Daniel Torok, The White House; Public domain (US federal government work; Commons tag PD-USGov-POTUS). Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Official_Presidential_Portrait_of_President_Donald_J._Trump_(2025 ↗).jpg; licence: copyright.gov/title17/92chap1.html#105 ↗
• Benjamin Netanyahu: U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Jack Sanders / U.S. Department of Defense (Secretary of Defense Flickr); Public domain (US federal government work, DoD photo; Commons tag PD-USGov-DOD). The Flickr source additionally labels it CC BY 2.0.. Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:SecDef_Austin_visit_to_Yad_VaShem_and_Mount_Hertzl_210412-D-XI929-10047_(51111961984 ↗).jpg; licence: copyright.gov/title17/92chap1.html#105 ↗
• António Guterres: Daniel Torok, The White House (Official White House Photo); Public domain (US federal government work; Commons tag PD-USGov-POTUS; FlickreviewR passed). Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:President_Donald_Trump_participates_in_a_bilateral_meeting_with_U.N._Secretary_General_Antonio_Guterres_(54823840784 ↗).jpg; licence: copyright.gov/title17/92chap1.html#105 ↗
• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: Waldemir Barreto / Agência Senado (Federal Senate of Brazil); CC BY 2.0. Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:11%C2%BA_F%C3%B3rum_Parlamentar_do_Brics_-_Brasil_2025_-_2%C2%AA_Sess%C3%A3o_de_Trabalho_(54568130840 ↗).jpg; licence: creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 ↗
• Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani: Chuck Kennedy, U.S. Department of State (Official State Department photo); Public domain (US federal government work; Commons tag PD-USGov-DOS; FlickreviewR passed). Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Qatari_Prime_Minister_and_Foreign_Minister_Mohammed_bin_Abdulrahman_Al_Thani_met_with_United_States_Secretary_of_State_Antony_Blinken_at_the_Department_of_State_in_Washington,_D.C._on_March_5,_2024.jpg ↗; licence: copyright.gov/title17/92chap1.html#105 ↗
• Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei: khamenei.ir (Office of the Supreme Leader); photographer not credited; CC BY 4.0 (Commons {{khamenei}}; LicenseReview by Majora 2018-03-05). Cropped and framed; source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ali_Khamenei_Nowruz_message_official_portrait_1397_01.jpg ↗; licence: creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 ↗