Big claims, checked.Did Trump Just Start a US Debt Spiral? We Checked the Numbers
Every figure shown on screen in this episode, with the document, page and date it comes from, and a label for how strong the evidence is.
A viral claim says Trump just started a US debt spiral. We follow the interest bill through the numbers of the Congressional Budget Office, the Treasury and the Federal Reserve: what changed this year, what CBO projected before he took office, and how close the debt really is to a spiral.
- Published
- 13 October 2026
- Length
- 8:55
- Figures checked
- 13 October 2026
- Documents
- 33
On screen in this episode
35The document shows it, and you can check it yourself.
8Someone says so, but nothing independent backs it up.
2Something that matters is missing from every source we checked.
13Our own arithmetic, with the inputs and method shown below.
What isn’t shown
- 3:19Lenders are charging more. The Fed isn't blaming the debt. Yet.
- 6:19No bill · No CBO estimate
- 3:05And when Fed officials explained the rise, they named a stronger economy, A I companies borrowing heavily, and geopolitics. Asked directly whether debt was part of it, the Fed chair answered without mentioning debt. Lenders are charging more. The Fed isn't blaming the debt. Yet.
- 6:19There's no bill and no CBO estimate yet.
On screen, in order
- 0:03
Federal spending, fiscal year 2026 (billions of dollars): interest on the debt $1,143B · Medicare $1,069B · Military (Defense Dept.) $916B
Data as of 30 September 2026. CBO's preliminary estimate of 8 Oct 2026 for Oct 2025–Sep 2026. Net interest on the public debt; Medicare is net of offsetting receipts; military is DoD military activities. Social Security ($1,654B) is larger and is not shown. Developing: Treasury's own September statement replaces CBO's estimate.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 4, Table 3
- 0:15
The claim: “Trump just started the debt spiral”
Data as of 10 October 2026. Headline of the claim being checked. The nearest primary text is Taleb's X post of 10 Oct 2026 (next row).
- [2] Taleb post on X, 10 Oct 2026, post text, line 1
- 0:23
Post by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb), 10 Oct 2026: “Trump is behind a debt spiral … The debt spiral is unavoidable … It is just fiscal incompetence.”
Data as of 10 October 2026. His own claim, quoted from the post's embed text; omitted words are marked with ellipses (one omitted passage contains a profanity). The post also says Trump is adding "42% to the total debt"; the episode does not repeat that figure because it does not reproduce from Treasury's Debt to the Penny data (calculation c08 shows the changes we calculated).
- [2] Taleb post on X, 10 Oct 2026, post text, lines 1–3
- 0:46
$40 trillion · 18 Aug 2026 (total federal debt, trillions of dollars, Jan 2017–Oct 2026)
Data as of 8 October 2026. Total public debt outstanding includes holdings of government trust funds and other federal accounts. Debt held by the public was $32.45 trillion on 8 Oct 2026.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding: $40,047,425,768,420 on 18 Aug 2026; $39,986,657,878,072 on 17 Aug
- 0:52
Post by Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci), 9 Oct 2026: “This isn't apocalyptic. It's just math. 10-year treasury at 6%. $40 trillion in debt. Do the math. That's $2.4 trillion in annual interest payments.”
Data as of 9 October 2026. His own claim. The embed text is truncated and an attached video was not retrieved; only the quoted part is used.
- [4] Scaramucci post on X, 9 Oct 2026, post text
- 1:01
“6% × $40T = $2.4T. Correct.” · “But the U.S. doesn't pay 6%”
Data as of 8 October 2026. The arithmetic is right (0.06 × 40 = 2.4). The 6% is Scaramucci's assumption: the 10-year yield, which is a market rate on new borrowing, was 5.22% on 8 Oct 2026, and the average rate Treasury pays on all marketable debt was 3.518% on 30 Sep 2026.
- 1:06
10-year Treasury yield (percent, Jan 2000–Oct 2026): 5.31% · 5 Oct 2026 · highest close since May 2002
Data as of 8 October 2026. The chart shows daily data as month-end values. The highest-since comparison is Owlfox's scan of the daily series.
- [5] Federal Reserve H.15, 10-year yield, 10-year constant maturity, daily: 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026; 5.32% on 14 May 2002
- 1:12
0.52% · Aug 2020 (10-year Treasury yield)
Data as of 8 October 2026. The 10-year yield was below 1% on 205 of 251 trading days in 2020 (Owlfox count of the daily series).
- [5] Federal Reserve H.15, 10-year yield, 10-year constant maturity, 4 Aug 2020: 0.52%
- 1:15
Treasury average: 3.52% (30 Sep 2026)
Data as of 30 September 2026. Treasury's measure is the average interest rate on total marketable debt. CBO's "average rate on debt held by the public" (3.4% for 2026 in its February projection) is a different measure.
- [6] Treasury average interest rates, total marketable debt, record date 30 Sep 2026: 3.518%
- 1:27
1.42% · Jan 2022 (average interest rate the U.S. pays on its marketable debt, monthly, Jan 2001–Sep 2026)
Data as of 30 September 2026.
- [6] Treasury average interest rates, total marketable debt, series low 1.424% at 31 Jan 2022
- 1:31
3.52% · Sep 2026 — highest since 2008
Data as of 30 September 2026. Highest month-end value since Sep 2008. It has risen in each of the eight months since Jan 2026 (3.348%).
- [6] Treasury average interest rates, total marketable debt: 3.518% at 30 Sep 2026; 3.665% at 30 Sep 2008
- 1:42
Fiscal year 2026 (trillions of dollars, Oct 2025–Sep 2026): receipts $5.4T · outlays $7.4T · $2.0T gap (deficit $1,993 billion)
Data as of 30 September 2026. CBO's preliminary estimate of 8 Oct 2026. Developing.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1: receipts 5,403; outlays 7,396; deficit 1,993 ($ billions)
- 1:49
57% of the $1,993B deficit (interest $1,143B · everything else $850B)
Data as of 30 September 2026.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1; p. 4, Table 3
- 1:53
21¢ of every $1 collected
Data as of 30 September 2026.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1; p. 4, Table 3
- 2:04
10-year Treasury yield: 5.31% · 5 Oct 2026 · highest close since May 2002
Data as of 8 October 2026.
- [5] Federal Reserve H.15, 10-year yield, 10-year constant maturity, daily: 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026; 5.32% on 14 May 2002
- 2:09
4.05% · 10 Oct 2025 (10-year Treasury yield)
Data as of 8 October 2026.
- [5] Federal Reserve H.15, 10-year yield, 10-year constant maturity, 10 Oct 2025: 4.05%
- 2:14
Brent crude, per barrel: $64 → $125 (EIA spot, 10 Oct 2025 → 6 Oct 2026)
Data as of 6 October 2026.
- [7] EIA Brent spot price, Brent spot price, daily: $64.41 on 10 Oct 2025; $125.44 on 6 Oct 2026
- 2:20
Consumer prices, August: 3.4% (BLS CPI, year over year)
Data as of 31 August 2026.
- [8] BLS CPI, August 2026, CPI-U, August 2026, 12-month change
- 2:23
+0.25 Fed raises rates · 16 Sep 2026 · first hike since 2023 · to 3.75–4.00%
- 2:30
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: nominated by President Trump, 4 March 2026. Raised rates on 16 September.
- 2:35
President Trump · TIME: “this is hurting our country more than inflation is hurting our country”
Data as of 1 October 2026. What he said is documented in TIME's transcript. The interview was conducted on 28 Sep 2026 and published on 1 Oct 2026.
- [12] TIME interview transcript, 1 Oct 2026, late in the transcript, in reply to a question about the Fed's rate increases
- 2:44
What's inside the 10-year yield? (a model's estimate): 4.10% (10 Oct 2025) → 5.23% (9 Oct 2026)
Data as of 9 October 2026. Model estimate. The model's zero-coupon yield differs slightly from the 10-year constant-maturity yield in H.15.
- [13] NY Fed term premium (ACM model), ACM Daily sheet: 10-year zero-coupon yield, 10 Oct 2025 and 9 Oct 2026
- 2:54
Expected short rates: +0.76 · term premium: +0.36 · ≈ 2/3 rates path · ≈ 1/3 term premium
Data as of 9 October 2026. Model estimate, not a measurement. The model does not say why the term premium moved. The changes are Owlfox's subtraction of the published values.
- [13] NY Fed term premium (ACM model), ACM Daily sheet: risk-neutral yield and term premium, 10 Oct 2025 → 9 Oct 2026
- 3:01
Since the 16 Sep hike: term premium +0.24 · rates path +0.01 · 0.90: highest since July 2014
Data as of 9 October 2026. Model estimate. Since the hike almost all of the rise in the model's 10-year yield is term premium.
- [13] NY Fed term premium (ACM model), ACM Daily sheet: 16 Sep 2026 → 9 Oct 2026; term premium 0.90 on 9 Oct 2026
- 3:08
Chair Warsh, press conference, 16 Sep 2026 — reasons given for higher long-term yields: the economy has strengthened · competition for capital · geopolitics
Data as of 16 September 2026. The chair called them "the three leading explanations but certainly not an exclusive list". Neither the transcript passage nor the minutes passage names federal debt or deficits.
- 3:16
Question to the Fed chair: “Is debt part of that issue?” · His answer did not mention debt
Data as of 16 September 2026. The transcript shows the question and that the answer, about the Fed's assessment of employment, inflation and the economy, did not mention debt. It is not a denial either.
- [14] Warsh press conference transcript, 16 Sep 2026, p. 5 of 15
- 3:19
Lenders are charging more. The Fed isn't blaming the debt. Yet.
Data as of 7 October 2026. Owlfox's summary of the Fed's own materials. It rests on an absence: the 16 Sep statement does not mention federal debt, deficits or fiscal policy; the chair's press-conference answers do not link yields to it; the September minutes do not discuss federal deficits or debt sustainability (a search for "deficit" finds nothing). It applies to these Fed documents, not to what other economists say. Label: the Fed material does not link the rise in yields to debt or deficits (the word "deficit" does not appear in the September minutes); an absence in these documents, not a denial.
- 3:29
CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036, p. 84: “Borrowing to pay for greater interest costs pushes up the net cost of interest further.”
"Spiral" is our word; CBO describes the mechanism.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, p. 84 (PDF p. 92), chapter 3
- 4:00
6.3% growth of the economy (nominal GDP, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 · BEA · inflation included)
Data as of 30 June 2026.
- [17] BEA nominal GDP via FRED, nominal GDP, Q2 2026 and Q2 2025
- 4:00
3.5% average rate on the debt (Treasury, total marketable debt, 30 Sep 2026)
Data as of 30 September 2026.
- [6] Treasury average interest rates, total marketable debt, record date 30 Sep 2026: 3.518%
- 4:11
The race, in CBO's own numbers (percent per year): growth of the economy vs interest rate on the debt · 2031: equal · from 2032: interest ahead
Data as of 24 September 2026. On CBO's February-2026-based baseline; the crossing year is ±1 year because CBO's rates are rounded to 0.1 point.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, supplemental tables 1–3, extended baseline
- 4:21
CBO assumed a 4.1% ten-year rate for 2026. On 8 October it was 5.22%. (CBO forecast, Feb 2026 · Federal Reserve H.15)
Data as of 8 October 2026. CBO's figure is a forecast for 2026 as a whole; 5.22% is one day's market yield. The 10-year yield is not the average rate on the debt.
- 4:35
Federal debt held by the public, % of GDP, CBO projections 2026–2056: baseline 175% · average rate +1 point: 222% · dashed line: 1946 record, 106%
Data as of 24 September 2026. CBO projections, not outcomes, built on February 2026 inputs. The higher-rate scenario lets the average rate on the debt drift up by about 5 basis points a year until it is 1 point higher than baseline.
- 4:46
Growth from 2026 to 2036 in CBO's projection (percent increase in dollars): net interest $1,039B → $2,144B (+106%) · Medicare $1,063B → $1,970B (+85%) · Social Security $1,666B → $2,747B (+65%)
CBO's current-law baseline of February 2026; the percentages are Owlfox's arithmetic on CBO's dollar figures.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, summary table, 2026 and 2036 columns
- 4:51
Deficit, with and without interest (percent of GDP, CBO projection 2026–2036): without interest 2.6% → 2.1% · total deficit 5.8% → 6.7%
CBO projection of February 2026.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, Executive Summary, p. 1; Figure 1-1
- 5:03
CBO, 17 Jan 2025 — three days before the inauguration. Same report: debt 118% of GDP by 2035
Data as of 6 January 2025. CBO projection published 17 Jan 2025, before the current term; a projection, not an outcome.
- [19] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2025–2035, Summary, PDF pp. 5 and 7
- 5:20
Total federal debt (trillions of dollars): Trump (1st term) +$7.8T · Biden +$8.45T · Trump (2nd term, to 8 Oct 2026) +$4.1T
Data as of 8 October 2026. Gross debt, including holdings of government trust funds. Presidents do not borrow alone: Congress writes the tax and spending laws.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding on 20 Jan 2017, 20 Jan 2021, 17 Jan 2025 and 8 Oct 2026
- 5:38
CBO, Executive Summary (Feb 2026): rising net interest costs drive much of the increase · the 2025 reconciliation act +$4.7 trillion · higher tariffs −$3.0 trillion
CBO's comparison with its January 2025 baseline; includes effects on the economy and debt-service costs.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, Executive Summary, p. 1
- 5:51
Learning Resources v. Trump · 20 Feb 2026 · 6–3 (“Held: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.”)
Data as of 20 February 2026.
- [20] Supreme Court, Learning Resources v. Trump, Syllabus (PDF p. 3; 607 U.S. at 230)
- 5:54
Ten-year effect on deficits, according to CBO (trillions of dollars, including effects on the economy and interest): +$4.7T 2025 tax & spending law (2026–2035, vs Jan 2025 baseline) · −$3.0T tariffs (as of Feb 2026)
CBO's first scoring of the law was +$3.4 trillion for 2025–2034, or +$4.1 trillion with debt-service costs (July and August 2025). Developing: CBO's tariff estimate predates the Supreme Court ruling.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, Executive Summary, p. 1
- 5:58
After the court: ~$0.9T less offset (2027–36) · ~$130B refunded in FY2026
Data as of 31 July 2026. The $0.9T is CBO's estimate of all trade-policy changes through 31 Jul 2026 against its February 2026 baseline, largely the removal of IEEPA tariffs. It covers 2027–2036, while the $3.0T covers 2026–2035, so the two are not strictly additive. Refunds are CBO's preliminary estimate. Developing.
- 6:11
The promise · White House, 10 Sep 2026: “a historic $5,000 cash payment to every adult American citizen” · if Republicans win the House and the Senate · Trump's own estimate: “approximately $1 trillion”
Data as of 7 October 2026. The promise and Trump's cost estimate are his own claims. The $1 trillion figure was also said at a rally on 7 Oct 2026 (third-party transcript).
- 6:16
240.8M × $5,000 = $1.20T (adult citizens: Census Bureau CVAP, ACS 2020–2024)
Assumes every adult citizen receives $5,000; no bill defines who would qualify.
- [24] Census CVAP 2020–2024, Nation.csv, cvap_est 240,833,679
- 6:19
No bill · No CBO estimate
Data as of 12 October 2026. Checked 12 Oct 2026: the congress.gov list of bills sponsored by Sen. Bernie Moreno, who was reported to be drafting a Trump Dividend bill, contains no bill on a $5,000 dividend; no CBO publication on a dividend was found. The search was of that sponsor's list and CBO's publications, not of every bill. Developing.
- Checked[25] congress.gov, bills sponsored by Sen. Moreno, list of bills sponsored by Sen. Moreno, as of 12 Oct 2026
- 6:21
≈ 7.0× this year's tariff revenue after refunds ($172B, CBO)
Data as of 30 September 2026. $1,204 billion ÷ $172 billion. Customs duties are net of about $130 billion of IEEPA refunds; CBO's preliminary estimate.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, pp. 2–3, receipts: customs duties $172 billion in FY2026
- 6:27
President Trump · TIME, interview transcript published 1 Oct 2026: “Certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly.”
Data as of 1 October 2026. That he said it is documented; that inflation would pay off the debt is his claim. He gives no inflation rate or plan.
- [12] TIME interview transcript, 1 Oct 2026, late in the transcript, directly after his remark on the Fed's rate increases
- 6:34
Kevin Hassett · White House NEC, Bloomberg “Open Interest”, 2 Oct 2026: “No, absolutely not.”
Data as of 13 October 2026. His own statement of administration intent, in answer to "Does this White House to some degree plan to inflate its way out of the debt?". Checked against the video's audio on 13 Oct 2026. In the same interview he called inflation's effect on debt "a mechanical thing".
- [26] Bloomberg Open Interest, Hassett, 2 Oct 2026, video at about 6:00–6:11
- 6:46
22.4% short-term bills · notes, bonds, TIPS, FRNs — rolling over at new rates (marketable Treasury debt by type, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, Sep 2026)
Data as of 30 September 2026.
- [27] Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, Table 1, 30 Sep 2026: bills $7,118.1B of $31,834.9B marketable
- 6:53
Inflation and interest rates 0.1 point higher each year: deficits +$311 billion over 2027–2036. (CBO, How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget, Apr 2026)
CBO model estimate (rule of thumb), assuming real interest rates are unchanged; effects on outlays are larger than on revenues.
- [28] CBO rules of thumb, April 2026, p. 2 and p. 9
- 6:59
Economic Report of the President, April 2026: debt falling to 94% of GDP over ten years (against 117% if the 2017 tax cuts expire) · tariff revenue assumed before the court ruling
The administration's own projection. The $3.5 trillion tariff-revenue input predates the Supreme Court ruling of 20 Feb 2026.
- [29] Economic Report of the President 2026, PDF p. 9; chapter 1, pp. 41–42
- 7:11
“our economy would have absorbed the largest tax hike in its history—over $5 trillion” — Treasury Secretary Bessent, written testimony, House Ways and Means, 4 Jun 2026
Data as of 4 June 2026.
- [30] Bessent written testimony, 4 Jun 2026, p. 1
- 7:15
Compared with the 2017 tax cuts simply continuing, CBO finds the 2025 law cuts deficits by $366 billion (2025–2034). (CBO · current-policy baseline, 21 Jul 2025)
Data as of 21 July 2025. Relative to the budget enforcement baseline for consideration in the Senate, which assumes the expiring 2017 tax cuts continue.
- [31] CBO estimate of P.L. 119-21, current-policy baseline, summary
- 7:33
Debt grew under every recent president (total federal debt, trillions of dollars, Jan 2017–Oct 2026)
Data as of 8 October 2026.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding, 20 Jan 2017 to 8 Oct 2026
- 7:47
6.3% growth of the economy · 3.5% average rate on the debt (nominal GDP, Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025; Treasury average rate, 30 Sep 2026)
- 7:53
The race, in CBO's own numbers: 2031: equal · from 2032: interest ahead · Sooner, if rates stay high
Data as of 24 September 2026. In CBO's higher-rate scenario the lines cross about a year earlier, around 2030.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, supplemental tables 1–3, baseline and higher-rate scenario
- 8:03
Federal debt held by the public (% of GDP, CBO projections): baseline 175% in 2056 · held at the 2026 level: 101%
Data as of 24 September 2026. CBO's constant-debt-ratio path. Projection built on February 2026 inputs.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, p. 1; supplemental tables 1–3
- 8:12
≈ $600 billion a year (1.9% of GDP)
Data as of 24 September 2026.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, p. 1 and supplemental tables
- 8:16
“the policy changes needed to put debt on a sustainable path will grow the longer lawmakers wait to implement those changes” — CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, PDF p. 31
Also said in the narration
- 0:00
In the budget year that just ended, the United States spent one point one four trillion dollars on interest. More than on Medicare. More than the Pentagon spent on the military.
Data as of 30 September 2026. Net interest on the public debt in FY2026 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026): $1,143 billion, against Medicare $1,069 billion and DoD military $916 billion. CBO's preliminary estimate of 8 Oct 2026. Social Security ($1,654 billion) is larger. Developing.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 4, Table 3
- 0:18
America's national debt is in a debt spiral, and President Trump just started it. On October tenth, Nassim Taleb, of Black Swan fame, posted that the debt spiral is unavoidable.
Data as of 10 October 2026. The claim being checked, attributed in the episode to Taleb's X post of 10 Oct 2026.
- [2] Taleb post on X, 10 Oct 2026, post text
- 0:45
Treasury's daily count passed forty trillion dollars on August eighteenth.
Data as of 8 October 2026. Total public debt outstanding (gross, including trust-fund holdings), not only debt held by the public.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding: $40.047 trillion on 18 Aug 2026
- 0:54
Investor Anthony Scaramucci did the math on X: six percent times forty trillion is two point four trillion a year. The multiplication is perfect. The six percent is not what America pays.
Data as of 9 October 2026. Six percent is Scaramucci's assumption. The 10-year yield was 5.22% on 8 Oct 2026 and the average rate on all marketable debt 3.518% on 30 Sep 2026.
- 1:09
It pays an average across years of borrowing, and some of that was locked in below one percent back in twenty twenty. Treasury's own figure for September: about three and a half percent.
Data as of 30 September 2026. Treasury's average rate on total marketable debt is a different measure from CBO's average rate on debt held by the public (3.4% for 2026 in its February projection).
- 1:22
Every month, old cheap debt matures and gets replaced at today's prices. That average bottomed at about one point four percent in early twenty twenty-two. It has now risen eight months in a row, to its highest level since twenty oh eight.
Data as of 30 September 2026. Month-end series. The rate fell from 3.406% (Sep 2025) to 3.348% (Jan 2026) and has risen in each of the eight months since.
- [6] Treasury average interest rates, total marketable debt: 1.424% at 31 Jan 2022; 3.518% at 30 Sep 2026; 3.665% at 30 Sep 2008
- 1:41
This year the government took in about five point four trillion dollars and spent about seven point four.
Data as of 30 September 2026. CBO's preliminary estimate for FY2026. Developing.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1
- 1:47
Of that two trillion dollar gap, by our calculation, fifty-seven percent was interest. About twenty-one cents of every tax dollar, gone before anything else gets paid.
Data as of 30 September 2026. Receipts are all federal revenue, not only taxes on income.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1; p. 4, Table 3
- 2:01
On October fifth, the ten-year Treasury yield closed at five point three one percent. Highest since May two thousand two. A year earlier, it was about four.
Data as of 8 October 2026.
- [5] Federal Reserve H.15, 10-year yield, 10-year constant maturity: 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026; 5.32% on 14 May 2002; 4.05% on 10 Oct 2025
- 2:15
Brent crude nearly doubled in a year, and the Fed's own minutes link that to geopolitics.
- 2:20
Inflation hit three point four percent in August. So on September sixteenth, the Fed raised rates for the first time since twenty twenty-three.
Data as of 16 September 2026. The statement gives inflation as its reason. Developing: September CPI is due 14 Oct 2026 and the next FOMC meeting is 27–28 Oct.
- 2:30
The Fed chair who raised them, Kevin Warsh, was picked by President Trump. And Trump told TIME the hikes are hurting the country more than inflation is.
- 2:45
The New York Fed has a model that splits the ten-year rate into two parts: where short-term rates are expected to go, and an extra charge for locking money away for a decade. Over the past year, about two thirds of the rise was the first part. About a third was the extra charge, now the highest since twenty fourteen.
Data as of 9 October 2026. Model estimate (Adrian–Crump–Moench), not a measurement; it does not say why the extra charge, the term premium, moved. Since the 16 Sep hike almost all of the rise has been term premium (+0.24 of +0.24).
- [13] NY Fed term premium (ACM model), ACM Daily sheet
- 3:05
And when Fed officials explained the rise, they named a stronger economy, A I companies borrowing heavily, and geopolitics. Asked directly whether debt was part of it, the Fed chair answered without mentioning debt. Lenders are charging more. The Fed isn't blaming the debt. Yet.
Data as of 7 October 2026. Applies to the Fed's own material (statement, press conference, September minutes), not to all economists. The minutes record market commentary pointing to geopolitics, uncertainty about Treasury's buyback programme and AI-related debt issuance (p. 1). Label: the Fed material does not link the rise in yields to debt or deficits (the word "deficit" does not appear in the September minutes); an absence in these documents, not a denial.
- 3:26
The Congressional Budget Office describes it in one dry sentence: borrowing to pay for greater interest costs pushes up the net cost of interest further. More borrowing, more interest, more borrowing.
"Spiral" is our word for the mechanism CBO describes.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, p. 84 (PDF p. 92)
- 4:00
Right now, growth is comfortably ahead. The economy's dollar size grew about six percent over the past year, inflation included, against that average rate of three and a half.
- 4:15
On CBO's numbers, the two lines meet in twenty thirty-one, and interest pulls ahead from twenty thirty-two.
Data as of 24 September 2026. Owlfox's reading of CBO's baseline, which was built on February 2026 inputs; ±1 year.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, supplemental tables 1–3
- 4:21
And those numbers assumed a ten-year rate of about four point one percent this year. It's about five point two.
- 4:32
Let the average rate on the debt drift one point higher, and debt reaches two hundred and twenty-two percent of GDP by twenty fifty-six, instead of one hundred and seventy-five. The World War Two record was one hundred and six.
- 4:46
Even in CBO's normal projections, interest is the fastest-growing big item in the budget.
Net interest +106% against Medicare +85% and Social Security +65%, 2026 to 2036.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, summary table
- 4:52
The budget without interest actually improves a little. The total deficit still gets worse. The entire increase comes from interest.
Primary deficit 2.6% → 2.1% of GDP; total deficit 5.8% → 6.7%; net interest 3.3% → 4.6%, which accounts for more than the whole increase (figures rounded; calculation c07).
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, Executive Summary, p. 1
- 5:03
Here's CBO in January twenty twenty-five, three days before he took office: debt heading to one hundred and eighteen percent of GDP by twenty thirty-five, and interest costing more than defense every single year.
Data as of 6 January 2025. Projection of 17 Jan 2025: debt 100% of GDP in 2025 rising to 118% in 2035; interest costs exceed defense outlays in each year 2025–2035.
- [19] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2025–2035, Summary, PDF pp. 5 and 7
- 5:18
About seven point eight trillion dollars in Trump's first term. About eight and a half under Biden. About four point one so far in this one.
Data as of 8 October 2026. Gross debt, including trust-fund holdings. Congress writes the tax and spending laws.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding
- 5:38
The twenty twenty-five tax and spending law adds about four point seven trillion dollars to deficits over ten years, counting growth and extra interest. Tariffs were meant to offset about three trillion of that.
CBO's comparison with its January 2025 baseline for 2026–2035, including effects on the economy and debt service; the tariff offset is as of Feb 2026. CBO's first scoring in July–August 2025 was +$3.4 trillion for 2025–2034, +$4.1 trillion with debt-service costs.
- 5:51
Then the Supreme Court struck down the biggest tariffs. About one hundred and thirty billion dollars went back out as refunds this fiscal year.
- 5:59
And CBO now says trade changes since February add about point nine trillion back to deficits over the next decade.
Data as of 31 July 2026. Trade-policy changes through 31 Jul 2026 against CBO's February 2026 baseline, 2027–2036; largely the removal of IEEPA tariffs. Developing.
- [21] CBO tariff update, 20 Aug 2026, paragraph 1
- 6:08
A five-thousand-dollar Trump dividend for every adult citizen, if Republicans win both chambers of Congress. Trump puts the cost at about one trillion.
Data as of 7 October 2026. Trump's own promise and cost estimate. Truth Social's own pages were blocked, so the wording is taken from the White House release and the rally transcript.
- 6:16
Our arithmetic says one point two.
240,833,679 × $5,000 = $1.204 trillion.
- [24] Census CVAP 2020–2024, Nation.csv, cvap_est
- 6:19
There's no bill and no CBO estimate yet.
Data as of 12 October 2026. Checked 12 Oct 2026: no bill on a $5,000 dividend among the bills sponsored by Sen. Moreno, who was reported to be drafting one; no CBO publication on it found. The check was of that sponsor's list and CBO's publications, not of every bill.
- Checked[25] congress.gov, bills sponsored by Sen. Moreno, list of bills sponsored by Sen. Moreno
- 6:22
For scale: about seven years of this year's tariff revenue, after refunds.
Data as of 30 September 2026. $1,204 billion ÷ $172 billion = 7.0.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, pp. 2–3, receipts: customs duties $172 billion
- 6:29
Trump told TIME that certain levels of inflation will pay off the debt very rapidly.
Data as of 1 October 2026. That he said it is documented; that inflation would pay off the debt is his claim. TIME published the interview on 1 Oct 2026.
- [12] TIME interview transcript, 1 Oct 2026, late in the transcript
- 6:34
The next day, his own top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, was asked if the White House would inflate its way out. No, absolutely not, he said.
Data as of 13 October 2026. His own statement of administration intent, on 2 Oct 2026. Checked against the audio on 13 Oct 2026.
- [26] Bloomberg Open Interest, Hassett, 2 Oct 2026, video at about 6:00–6:11
- 6:43
Inflation does shrink old fixed-rate debt. But more than a fifth of the debt Treasury sells is short-term bills, and the rest keeps rolling over at new rates.
Data as of 30 September 2026. Bills are 22.4% of marketable debt. The first sentence is general debt arithmetic; Hassett himself called it "a mechanical thing" (P04).
- [27] Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, Table 1, 30 Sep 2026
- 6:53
CBO's rule of thumb: inflation that interest rates follow makes deficits bigger, not smaller.
CBO model estimate: +0.1 point on inflation and interest rates each year raises deficits by $311 billion over 2027–2036.
- [28] CBO rules of thumb, April 2026, p. 2 and p. 9
- 6:59
The administration's case is growth. Its economic report projects debt falling to ninety-four percent of GDP in ten years, though that counted on tariff money from before the court ruling.
The administration's own projection; its tariff-revenue input predates the Supreme Court ruling.
- [29] Economic Report of the President 2026, PDF p. 9; chapter 1, pp. 41–42
- 7:11
It also says the law mainly prevented a giant tax increase.
Data as of 4 June 2026. Secretary Bessent's written testimony of 4 Jun 2026.
- [30] Bessent written testimony, 4 Jun 2026, p. 1
- 7:15
Measured against the twenty seventeen tax cuts simply continuing, CBO does find the law cuts deficits, by about three hundred and sixty-six billion.
Data as of 21 July 2025. Net decrease of $366 billion over 2025–2034 against the budget enforcement (current-policy) baseline.
- [31] CBO estimate of P.L. 119-21, current-policy baseline, summary
- 7:33
No. The path was in CBO's projections before he took office, built over decades under presidents of both parties. But on CBO's numbers his policies made it steeper, and the interest bill is now growing faster than any other big item in the budget.
Owlfox's conclusion, drawn from the documented CBO figures at 5:03, 5:38 and 5:58 and the calculation at 4:46; it is analysis, not a CBO finding. "Steeper" is measured against CBO's own projections. "Built over decades under presidents of both parties" is our summary: this page documents debt changes under both parties for 2017–2026 (calculation c08) but has no separate source for earlier decades.
- 7:48
And is it a spiral yet? Not in the strict sense. Growth still beats the rate on the debt. But on the government's own projections, the lines cross in about five years. Sooner, if rates stay high.
Data as of 24 September 2026. "Spiral" in the strict sense means interest outgrowing the economy by itself, which CBO's baseline reaches around 2031–2032 (±1 year) and the higher-rate scenario around 2030.
- 8:03
Holding the debt at today's one hundred and one percent of GDP means a budget before interest that's about one point nine percent of GDP better, every year. Today, that's roughly six hundred billion dollars a year.
Data as of 24 September 2026. Average over CBO's projection period; the dollar figure applies 1.9% to 2026 GDP of $31.9 trillion.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, p. 1
- 8:17
And CBO's warning is blunt: the longer lawmakers wait, the bigger that fix gets.
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, PDF p. 31
Our calculations
- Interest as a share of the fiscal year 2026 deficit
Net interest on the public debt $1,143 billion ÷ deficit $1,993 billion = 57.4%, shown as 57%. The rest of the deficit is $850 billion (1,993 − 1,143), the part before interest. Inputs are CBO's preliminary estimates for Oct 2025–Sep 2026 (8 Oct 2026); Treasury's own September statement replaces them.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1; p. 4, Table 3
- Interest per dollar of federal revenue
Net interest $1,143 billion ÷ receipts $5,403 billion = 21.2 cents of every dollar the government took in, shown as 21 cents. Receipts are all federal revenue, not only income taxes. CBO's preliminary FY2026 estimate.
- [1] CBO Monthly Budget Review, Sept 2026, p. 1, Table 1; p. 4, Table 3
- Growth of the economy against the average rate on the debt
Nominal GDP, Q2 2026 $32,563.0 billion ÷ Q2 2025 $30,630.2 billion − 1 = +6.31%, shown as 6.3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate, inflation included). Compared with Treasury's average interest rate on total marketable debt, 3.518% at 30 Sep 2026, shown as 3.5%. The two measure different things (a year's growth of the whole economy in dollars; the month-end average rate on debt outstanding). The comparison shows which is larger today, not a forecast.
- When economic growth and the average interest rate meet
From CBO's extended baseline (24 Sep 2026 letter, supplemental tables): fiscal-year growth of nominal GDP = GDP(t) ÷ GDP(t−1) − 1, using CBO's GDP levels, against CBO's average interest rate on debt held by the public. 2030: growth 3.84% vs rate 3.8%. 2031: 3.80% vs 3.8%, equal. 2032: 3.77% vs 3.9%, rate ahead. 2033–2056: the rate is above growth every year. In CBO's higher-rate scenario the lines meet around 2030. CBO rounds rates to 0.1 point, so the crossing year is ±1 year. The baseline was built on February 2026 inputs, before the Supreme Court tariff ruling and the September rate increase.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, supplemental tables 1–3
- "Highest since" comparisons
Owlfox scans of the published series. (1) 10-year constant-maturity yield (H.15, daily): 5.31% on 5 Oct 2026; the last earlier close at or above 5.31% was 5.32% on 14 May 2002. (2) Treasury average rate on total marketable debt (month-end): 3.518% at 30 Sep 2026, the highest since 3.665% at 30 Sep 2008; series low 1.424% at 31 Jan 2022; down from 3.406% (Sep 2025) to 3.348% (Jan 2026), then up in each of the eight months to September 2026. (3) NY Fed ACM 10-year term premium: 0.90 percentage point on 9 Oct 2026, the highest since 3 Jul 2014 (0.94); the 2026 high was 0.98 on 7 Oct. Developing: the series are re-pulled on publication day.
- Splitting the year's rise in the 10-year yield (model estimate)
From the New York Fed's term-premium file: 10-year zero-coupon yield 4.1048% (10 Oct 2025) → 5.2284% (9 Oct 2026) = +1.12 points. Expected path of short-term rates (the risk-neutral yield) 3.565% → 4.326% = +0.76 (about 68%, two thirds). Term premium 0.540 → 0.902 = +0.36 (about 32%, one third). Since the 16 Sep 2026 hike (yield 4.985% → 5.228% = +0.24): term premium 0.666 → 0.902 = +0.24; expected short rates 4.319% → 4.326% = +0.01. These are model estimates (Adrian–Crump–Moench), not measurements, and the model does not say why the premium moved.
- [13] NY Fed term premium (ACM model), ACM Daily sheet: ACMY10, ACMRNY10, ACMTP10
- Which big budget item grows fastest, and where the deficit increase comes from
CBO's February 2026 summary table, 2026 → 2036 (current law): net interest $1,039B → $2,144B = +106%; Medicare $1,063B → $1,970B = +85%; Social Security $1,666B → $2,747B = +65%. As a share of GDP: primary deficit 2.6% → 2.1% (−0.5 point); total deficit 5.8% → 6.7% (+0.9 point); net interest 3.3% → 4.6% (+1.3 points), which more than accounts for the rise in the total deficit (figures rounded).
- [16] CBO Budget and Economic Outlook 2026–2036, Executive Summary, p. 1; summary table
- How much the debt grew in each presidential period
Treasury's Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding: 20 Jan 2017 $19.947T → 20 Jan 2021 $27.752T = +$7.80T (Trump, first term). 20 Jan 2021 → 17 Jan 2025 $36.207T = +$8.45T (Biden; 20 Jan 2025 was a federal holiday, so the last business day before it is used). 17 Jan 2025 → 8 Oct 2026 $40.305T = +$4.10T (Trump, second term so far; using 21 Jan 2025 gives +$4.09T). Gross debt includes holdings of government trust funds. These are not a measure of who decided what: Congress writes the tax and spending laws, and earlier laws and interest also add to debt.
- [3] Treasury Debt to the Penny, total public debt outstanding on the dates listed
- The cost of a $5,000 dividend for every adult citizen
240,833,679 adult citizens (Census Bureau CVAP estimate, 2020–2024 ACS; margin of error ±131,833) × $5,000 = $1,204,168,395,000, about $1.20 trillion; Trump's own estimate is "approximately $1 trillion". Against FY2026 customs duties net of refunds, $172 billion (CBO, preliminary): 1,204 ÷ 172 = 7.0 years. It assumes every adult citizen is paid $5,000; no bill defines eligibility. The CVAP count covers residents, not citizens abroad.
- Share of marketable Treasury debt that is short-term bills
Treasury bills $7,118.1 billion ÷ total marketable debt $31,834.9 billion = 22.36%, shown as 22.4%. The rest: notes 51.1%, bonds 17.4%, inflation-protected securities 6.8%, floating-rate notes 2.2%. Securities that mature are replaced at the rates of the day, which is what "rolling over" means here. 30 Sep 2026; developing.
- [27] Treasury Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, Table 1, 30 Sep 2026
- What holding the debt ratio steady would take
CBO: holding debt at 101% of GDP requires primary deficits to average 0.2% of GDP instead of 2.1% in the baseline, about 1.9 percentage points of GDP smaller each year on average over the projection period. 1.9% × CBO's 2026 GDP of $31,902 billion = $606 billion, shown as roughly $600 billion a year. The share is an average and the dollar figure applies it to today's GDP.
- [18] CBO letter to Sen. Merkley, 24 Sep 2026, p. 1; supplemental tables 1–3
Documents
- Developing: every figure is as of 12–13 October 2026 and is re-pulled on publication day. Treasury's September Monthly Treasury Statement, the September CPI (14 Oct), the FOMC meeting of 27–28 Oct and the November refunding can change them. The video states its figures with their dates.
- CBO's monthly review figures for fiscal year 2026 (8 Oct 2026) are preliminary estimates; Treasury's own September statement will replace them.
- CBO's long-term projections (the February 2026 outlook, the April 2026 rules of thumb and the 24 September 2026 letter) were built on February 2026 inputs, before the Supreme Court's tariff ruling was reflected and before the Fed's September rate increase. They are projections, not outcomes.
- Two different average rates appear: Treasury's average interest rate on total marketable debt (3.518% on 30 Sep 2026) and CBO's average rate on debt held by the public (3.4% for 2026 in its February projection). They are different measures and are not directly comparable.
- The term premium and the split of the 10-year yield are New York Fed model estimates (Adrian–Crump–Moench), not measurements.
- Posts by Nassim Taleb and Anthony Scaramucci are quoted from the public embed text of each X post; Scaramucci's embed text is truncated. Truth Social's own pages were blocked and could not be retrieved, so no Truth Social post is cited: the dividend wording comes from the White House release of 10 Sep 2026 and from a transcript of Trump's 7 Oct rally (Roll Call Factba.se, a third-party transcription service).
- Kevin Hassett's "No, absolutely not." was checked against the audio of Bloomberg's Open Interest video on 13 Oct 2026; Bloomberg's machine transcript was not relied on alone.
- The credit-card example ($10,000 balance at 10% interest), the race bars and the layered "base" picture are illustrations of how debt works, not evidence. The explanation of interest against growth and the remark that Treasury yields sit under other borrowing are general background, not sourced findings.
- Our calculations (57% of the deficit, 21 cents per dollar, growth against the average rate, the 2031–2032 crossing, the presidential debt changes, the $1.20 trillion dividend, the $600 billion a year) are Owlfox's arithmetic on the documents listed; each shows its inputs below. The answer at 7:33 is Owlfox's analysis, not a CBO finding.
- Debt figures from Treasury's Debt to the Penny are total public debt outstanding, which includes holdings of government trust funds. Presidents do not borrow alone: Congress writes the tax and spending laws.
- Page numbers are the documents' own printed page numbers; PDF page numbers are given where they differ or where only the PDF page is known.
- [1]
Congressional Budget Office
Monthly Budget Review: September 2026
Published 8 October 2026 · Data as of 30 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Preliminary estimates for fiscal year 2026 (Oct 2025–Sep 2026), built from Treasury's August statement and daily data; Treasury's own September statement will replace them. Developing. CBO's site blocks automated clients; opened in a normal browser.
Used at 0:00 · 0:03 · 1:41 · 1:42 · 1:47 · 1:49 · 1:53 · 5:51 · 5:58 · 6:21 · 6:22
- [2]
X (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
Post by @nntaleb, 10 October 2026
Published 10 October 2026 · Data as of 10 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Text taken from the post's public embed. The primary page was not captured.
- [3]
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Debt to the Penny (total public debt outstanding)
Data as of 8 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Daily series; values used: 20 Jan 2017, 20 Jan 2021, 17 Jan 2025, 17–18 Aug 2026 and 8 Oct 2026. Developing: re-pulled on publication day.
- [4]
X (Anthony Scaramucci)
Post by @Scaramucci, 9 October 2026
Published 9 October 2026 · Data as of 9 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Text taken from the post's public embed, which is truncated; an attached video was not retrieved. Only the quoted part is used.
- [5]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
H.15 Selected Interest Rates (10-year Treasury constant maturity, daily)
Published 9 October 2026 · Data as of 8 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Series RIFLGFCY10_N.B, the same data as FRED's DGS10. Developing: re-pulled on publication day.
Used at 0:54 · 1:01 · 1:06 · 1:09 · 1:12 · 2:01 · 2:04 · 2:09 · 4:21
- [6]
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities
Published October 2026 · Data as of 30 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Measure used: average interest rate on total marketable debt, month-end. It is not the same measure as CBO's average rate on debt held by the public. Developing.
Used at 0:54 · 1:01 · 1:09 · 1:15 · 1:22 · 1:27 · 1:31 · 4:00 · 7:47 · 7:48
- [7]
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (daily)
Published 6 October 2026 · Data as of 6 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
- [8]
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Price Index – August 2026 (news release of 11 September 2026)
Published 11 September 2026 · Data as of 31 August 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
CPI-U, all items, not seasonally adjusted, August 2026 against August 2025: +3.4%; core +2.4%. BLS's site blocks automated clients. The September CPI is due 14 Oct 2026 (developing).
Used at 2:20
- [9]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (September 16, 2026)
Published 16 September 2026 · Data as of 16 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
- [10]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Open Market Operations: FOMC's target federal funds rate or range, change and level
Published 17 September 2026 · Data as of 17 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
- [11]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Published 22 May 2026 · Data as of 22 May 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Used at 2:30
- [12]
TIME
Read the Full Transcript of Donald Trump's 2026 Interview With TIME
Published 1 October 2026 · Data as of 28 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Published 1 October 2026; the interview was conducted at the White House on 28 September 2026.
TIME's own transcript. Whether inflation will pay off the debt is Trump's claim; TIME gives no inflation rate or plan.
- [13]
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Treasury Term Premia (Adrian, Crump & Moench model), ACMTermPremium
Published 9 October 2026 · Data as of 9 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Model estimates, not measurements. Developing: re-pulled on publication day.
- [14]
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Transcript of Chairman Warsh's Press Conference, September 16, 2026 (final)
Published 16 September 2026 · Data as of 16 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Page numbers are PDF pages (15 in total).
- [15]
Federal Open Market Committee
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15–16, 2026
Published 7 October 2026 · Data as of 16 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Released 7 October 2026.
- [16]
Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
Published 11 February 2026 · Data as of 14 January 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Economic forecast completed 3 Dec 2025; laws as of 14 Jan 2026. Built before the Supreme Court's IEEPA tariff ruling (20 Feb 2026) and before the Fed's September 2026 rate increase. Projections, not outcomes. CBO's site blocks automated clients; opened in a normal browser.
Used at 3:26 · 3:29 · 4:21 · 4:32 · 4:35 · 4:46 · 4:51 · 4:52 · 5:38 · 5:54 · 7:33 · 8:16 · 8:17
- [17]
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
Gross Domestic Product (nominal, quarterly, seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Data as of 30 June 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Second quarter of 2026 against the second quarter of 2025: $32,563.0 billion and $30,630.2 billion. FRED stamps the quarter 2026-04-01. Developing: later revisions change it.
- [18]
Congressional Budget Office
Published 24 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Extended baseline built on CBO's February 2026 projections, so before the tariff ruling and the September rate increase. Includes supplemental tables 1–3. Projections, not outcomes.
Used at 4:11 · 4:15 · 4:32 · 4:35 · 7:48 · 7:53 · 8:03 · 8:12
- [19]
Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
Published 17 January 2025 · Data as of 6 January 2025 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Projections as of January 2025, before the current term. Laws as of 6 Jan 2025.
- [20]
Supreme Court of the United States
Published 20 February 2026 · Data as of 20 February 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Preliminary print. Majority on the holding: Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Gorsuch, Barrett, Jackson (6–3). The judgment in No. 24-1287 was vacated for lack of jurisdiction; No. 25-250 was affirmed.
Used at 5:51
- [21]
Congressional Budget Office
CBO's Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026
Published 20 August 2026 · Data as of 31 July 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
CBO blog post. Trade-policy changes through 31 July 2026 relative to CBO's February 2026 baseline. Developing.
- [22]
The White House
Trump Dividend: America Is Winning — and Americans Should Win With It
Published 10 September 2026 · Data as of 10 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
States no cost, funding source, bill or legal mechanism.
- [23]
Roll Call Factba.se
Published 7 October 2026 · Data as of 7 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Third-party transcription service, not the speaker. The video itself was not reviewed.
- [24]
U.S. Census Bureau
Published 22 January 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Nation.csv: 240,833,679 adult citizens (estimate; margin of error ±131,833). ACS 5-year estimates for 2020–2024; they cover residents, not citizens living abroad.
Used at 6:16
- [25]
Library of Congress (congress.gov API)
Sponsored legislation of Sen. Bernie Moreno (M001242)
Published 12 October 2026 · Data as of 12 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Checked 12 Oct 2026 because Sen. Moreno was reported to be drafting a dividend bill. Latest bill introduced: S. 5666 (30 Sep 2026), not a dividend bill. Developing.
Used at 6:19
- [26]
Bloomberg (syndicated on Yahoo Finance)
NEC's Kevin Hassett on Sept. Jobs and Paying Down US Debt (Bloomberg Open Interest)
Published 2 October 2026 · Data as of 2 October 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Bloomberg's own page blocks automated clients, so the syndicated copy is used. Hassett's answer was checked against the video's audio on 13 Oct 2026: the question and "No, absolutely not." come at about 6:00–6:11 of the video (the page's machine-transcript timestamps run about 78 seconds late).
Used at 6:34
- [27]
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service
Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, Table 1
Published October 2026 · Data as of 30 September 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
September 2026 statement, marketable securities by type. Developing: the October statement replaces it.
- [28]
Congressional Budget Office
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036
Published 21 April 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Model estimates relative to CBO's February 2026 baseline.
Used at 6:53
- [29]
The White House / Council of Economic Advisers
Published April 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
The tariff-revenue input ($3.5 trillion for 2025–34) comes from OMB's 2025 Mid-Session Review, before the 20 Feb 2026 Supreme Court ruling that ended the IEEPA tariffs. Page numbers are PDF pages.
Used at 6:59
- [30]
U.S. Department of the Treasury / House Committee on Ways and Means
Published 4 June 2026 · Data as of 4 June 2026 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
The written testimony contains no deficit target.
Used at 7:11
- [31]
Congressional Budget Office
Published 21 July 2025 · Data as of 21 July 2025 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
The "current policy" baseline assumes the expiring 2017 tax cuts continue; the administration's argument that the law prevented a tax increase rests on this framing.
Used at 7:15
- [32]
Congressional Budget Office
Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21 Relative to CBO's January 2025 Baseline
Published 21 July 2025 · Data as of 21 July 2025 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Used at 5:38
- [33]
Congressional Budget Office
Published 4 August 2025 · Data as of 4 August 2025 · Retrieved 12 October 2026
Used at 5:38
Corrections
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